Republic Services’ expanding role in renewable natural gas

Republic Services (RSG) is drawing attention after partner Neogenyx Fuels delivered International Sustainability and Carbon Certification certified renewable natural gas from a Republic landfill into European compliance markets for the first time.

This transaction opens the door for Republic Services’ low carbon fuels portfolio to reach global buyers. It also gives investors a fresh angle on how the company’s environmental services assets interact with international energy and compliance markets.

At a share price of US$207.91, Republic Services has seen short term momentum firm up, with a 1 day share price return of 1.82% and a 7 day share price return of 2.07%. However, the 90 day share price return is down 10.02% and the 1 year total shareholder return is down 16.97%. This is set against longer term total shareholder returns of 50.09% over three years and 103.14% over five years, hinting that recent sentiment has cooled compared with the longer record.

If this kind of energy transition story has your attention, it can be useful to see what else is moving in related areas and check out 33 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks

With revenue and net income both growing annually and the stock trading around a 17% discount to one analyst price target and intrinsic value estimates, you have to ask: is this a mispriced opportunity, or is future growth already fully reflected?

Most Popular Narrative: 14.6% Undervalued

With Republic Services last closing at $207.91 and the most followed narrative pointing to a fair value of $243.58, the current price sits meaningfully below that estimate while still close enough to keep the debate very live.

Sustainability efforts such as the development of Polymer Centers and the Blue Polymers joint venture could drive future revenue growth by enhancing plastic circularity and decarbonization. These operations are expected to contribute to earnings starting in the second half of 2025.

Want to see what kind of revenue path and margin profile is built into that fair value, and how far future earnings power is stretched to close the gap? The numbers behind this narrative lean on steady top line progress, rising profitability, and a valuation multiple that assumes investors keep paying up for quality and cash flow resilience.

Result: Fair Value of $243.58 (UNDERVALUED)

However, there are still pressure points to watch, including softer construction and manufacturing volumes, as well as the execution risk around more than US$1b of planned acquisitions.

Next Steps

The mix of optimism and caution around Republic Services is clear. This is a good moment to move quickly and stress test the story for yourself using 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.