The recent executive order from President Donald Trump supporting deep sea critical mineral production, together with a new US Japan partnership, has drawn renewed attention to TMC the metals (NasdaqGS:TMC) and its deep ocean resource ambitions.

The executive order headlines arrive as TMC the metals trades at US$5.24, with a 30-day share price return of 11.97% but a 90-day decline of 44.49%. The very strong 3-year total shareholder return suggests long term momentum has been far more positive.

If you are considering how other critical mineral and metals names are positioned around this theme, it could be worth scanning 30 best rare earth metal stocks.

With TMC the metals sitting at US$5.24 and carrying a market cap of about US$2.5b alongside very large multi year total returns, the key question is simple: is there real upside left here or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 53.2% Undervalued

The most followed narrative puts TMC the metals' fair value at $11.20 per share versus the last close of $5.24. This frames a wide valuation gap that hinges on a handful of powerful project economics and policy catalysts.

The pre feasibility study and initial assessment outline a large resource with an estimated combined NPV of US$23.6b, targeted steady state revenue of about US$600 per dry ton and an EBITDA margin per ton of roughly 43%. If the company moves closer to these project economics while remaining in the first quartile of the cost curve, that cost position could support resilient margins and long term EBITDA and earnings power.

Want to see what sits behind that kind of NPV, revenue per ton and margin profile? The key is a pre revenue base, aggressive earnings targets and a valuation multiple usually reserved for fast growing sectors. All of this is tied to one cohesive set of long term assumptions that are very specific to this project.

Result: Fair Value of $11.20 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this hinges on securing a NOAA Commercial Recovery Permit and managing cash burn, with any setback potentially weakening those projected margins and valuation assumptions.

Next Steps

That combination of optimism and concern creates a clear tension. Move quickly, review the full picture for yourself, and weigh up the 1 key reward and 5 important warning signs.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If TMC the metals has caught your attention, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist with other focused ideas that could sharpen your next move.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.