Trinity Capital (TRIN) is back in focus after issuing preliminary fourth quarter 2025 guidance, indicating net investment income of $0.51 to $0.53 per share and reporting that approximately 0.7% of its debt investments are on non-accrual.

The preliminary guidance and low 0.7% non accrual level come as Trinity Capital’s share price sits at US$16.19, with a 30 day share price return of 5.47% and a 90 day gain of 10.89%. The 1 year total shareholder return of 17.62% and 3 year total shareholder return of 89.70% point to momentum that has been building over time rather than fading in recent months.

If this kind of update has you watching credit focused names more closely, it could be a good moment to broaden your search with our 22 top founder-led companies.

With shares at US$16.19, trading only slightly below the US$16.70 analyst target and with an indicated 41.80% intrinsic discount, the real question is whether Trinity is still undervalued or if the market is already pricing in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 1.5% Undervalued

Trinity Capital's most followed narrative pegs fair value at about $16.44, just above the recent $16.19 close, leaving only a small implied discount and a tight margin for error around the current price.

Strong growth in venture debt deal flow, surging assets under management (AUM), and expansion into managed account platforms are fueling investor expectations for sustained double-digit revenue and earnings growth. The rapid pace of origination, however, raises the risk that future credit quality or loan demand could falter if the innovation/startup or venture capital ecosystem weakens unexpectedly.

Curious what kind of revenue ramp and profit margins have to line up for that fair value to make sense? The narrative leans on ambitious growth, richer earnings, and a future valuation multiple that needs to stretch from where it sits today. The numbers behind that view are anything but casual.

Result: Fair Value of $16.44 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this depends on venture debt demand and credit quality remaining resilient. A pullback in VC activity or higher funding costs could quickly challenge that view.

Build Your Own Trinity Capital Narrative

If this narrative does not quite match your view or you would rather test the assumptions yourself, you can build a custom version in just a few minutes and Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Trinity Capital research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.