AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is back in focus after scheduling the August 5 launch of its BlueBird 11, 12 and 13 satellites, as well as reporting progress on a direct-to-cell partnership with Rakuten Mobile in Japan.

These launch and partnership updates come after a mixed period for AST SpaceMobile's stock. The share price is up 7.7% over the last day and 12.3% over the week, yet down 25.4% over the past month and 23.9% year to date. Total shareholder return over one year remains positive at 20.8% and extremely high over three and five years, suggesting longer term holders have seen strong gains even as near term momentum has softened.

If this kind of direct to device story interests you, it could be a useful time to widen your search and check out 55 AI infrastructure stocks

After a sharp swing higher in AST SpaceMobile following the latest launch plans and Japan update, investors now face a simpler question: Does the current price still reflect a compelling balance between long term potential and execution risk?

Most Popular Narrative: 62.6% Undervalued

The most followed narrative on AST SpaceMobile compares a fair value of $170 per share to the last close of $63.52 and frames the stock as heavily undervalued on long term potential.

AST’s eventual business model should be a mix of carrier service revenue, gateway infrastructure revenue, government contracts, MNO consulting and integration services, and potentially usage-based economics tied to space-based broadband service. Today, however, the financial profile is still transitional. Revenue in Q1 2026 came largely from gateway deployments and government-related activity, and management said 2026 revenue should rise each quarter from those categories plus potentially initial commercial service revenue.

Curious what turns that broad business mix into a $170 fair value for AST SpaceMobile? The narrative leans on aggressive revenue scaling, a shift to recurring margins, and a future earnings profile that assumes the direct to device network becomes a core infrastructure layer for carriers worldwide.

Result: Fair Value of $170 (UNDERVALUED)

However, AST SpaceMobile still faces real pressure if satellite deployment timelines slip or if major carrier partners hesitate to convert agreements into meaningful commercial revenue.

Next Steps

With sentiment on AST SpaceMobile split between big hopes and real concerns, act while the data is fresh and form your own view through the 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs

Looking for more ideas beyond AST SpaceMobile?

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• Hunt for potential bargains by reviewing companies that currently screen as 53 high quality undervalued stocks.
• Focus on defensiveness and stability by checking companies that feature in our 82 resilient stocks with low risk scores.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.