• Earlier in May 2026, AST SpaceMobile reported first-quarter results showing revenue rising to US$14.74 million while net loss widened to US$191.01 million, reaffirmed its 2026 revenue outlook of US$150.0 million to US$200.0 million, filed a US$166.02 million shelf registration tied to its ESOP, and presented at J.P. Morgan’s Global Technology, Media and Communications Conference.
• At the same time, AST SpaceMobile’s role in a new satellite-based direct-to-device venture with AT&T, T-Mobile and Verizon, alongside launches of leveraged ASTS ETFs, is reinforcing its position at the center of investor and industry attention around space-based cellular connectivity.
• Now we will examine how AST SpaceMobile’s involvement in the new carrier joint venture could reshape its investment narrative and future expectations.

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AST SpaceMobile Investment Narrative Recap

To own AST SpaceMobile, you have to believe that space based, direct to device connectivity can scale into a real operating business, not just a test program. The near term catalyst is clear execution on launching roughly 45 BlueBird satellites, while the biggest risk remains the high cash burn and capital intensity behind that plan. The new carrier joint venture headlines, along with recent price strength and leveraged ETFs, do not materially change those execution and funding questions.

The most relevant update is AST SpaceMobile’s reaffirmed 2026 revenue outlook of US$150.0 million to US$200.0 million despite a wider Q1 net loss of US$191.01 million. That guidance sits at the center of the current catalyst story, because it anchors expectations around how quickly carrier agreements and U.S. government work might begin to support the heavy spending required to build out the constellation.

Yet investors should also be aware that if launch delays persist while cash burn stays elevated...

AST SpaceMobile's narrative projects $2.1 billion revenue and $2.1 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 385.7% yearly revenue growth and about a $2.4 billion increase in earnings from -$303.8 million today.

Uncover how AST SpaceMobile's forecasts yield a $71.51 fair value, a 26% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Before this news, the most pessimistic analysts already assumed about US$1.9 billion of revenue and US$1.7 billion of earnings by 2029, which is far more conservative than the consensus and could look too cautious if the new carrier venture and satellite rollout progress as planned.

Explore 46 other fair value estimates on AST SpaceMobile - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

The Verdict Is Yours

Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.

• A great starting point for your AST SpaceMobile research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free AST SpaceMobile research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate AST SpaceMobile's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.