It's been a sad week for Astec Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ:ASTE), who've watched their investment drop 13% to US$44.25 in the week since the company reported its quarterly result. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at US$0.45, some 41% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at US$408m. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Astec Industries' four analysts is for revenues of US$1.62b in 2026. This would reflect an okay 4.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 115% to US$1.83. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.62b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.34 in 2026. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the large cut to new EPS forecasts.

The average price target fell 7.2% to US$67.25, with reduced earnings forecasts clearly tied to a lower valuation estimate. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Astec Industries, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$78.00 and the most bearish at US$60.00 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Astec Industries is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Astec Industries' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 8.9% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 6.0% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.9% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Astec Industries is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Astec Industries. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Astec Industries' future valuation.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Astec Industries analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.