While Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. (NYSE:CVLG) might not have the largest market cap around , it saw a significant share price rise of 24% in the past couple of months on the NYSE. The company is now trading at yearly-high levels following the recent surge in its share price. As a small cap stock, hardly covered by any analysts, there is generally more of an opportunity for mispricing as there is less activity to push the stock closer to fair value. Is there still an opportunity here to buy? Today we will analyse the most recent data on Covenant Logistics Group’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.

What's The Opportunity In Covenant Logistics Group?

The stock seems fairly valued at the moment according to our valuation model. It’s trading around 17.54% above our intrinsic value, which means if you buy Covenant Logistics Group today, you’d be paying a relatively reasonable price for it. And if you believe the company’s true value is $25.94, there’s only an insignificant downside when the price falls to its real value. So, is there another chance to buy low in the future? Given that Covenant Logistics Group’s share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us an opportunity to buy later on. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.

Can we expect growth from Covenant Logistics Group?

Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. With profit expected to more than double over the next couple of years, the future seems bright for Covenant Logistics Group. It looks like higher cash flow is on the cards for the stock, which should feed into a higher share valuation.

What This Means For You

Are you a shareholder? It seems like the market has already priced in CVLG’s positive outlook, with shares trading around its fair value. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the track record of its management team. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at the stock? Will you have enough conviction to buy should the price fluctuates below the true value?

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on CVLG, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. However, the positive outlook is encouraging for the company, which means it’s worth further examining other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. For example, Covenant Logistics Group has 4 warning signs (and 1 which is significant) we think you should know about.

If you are no longer interested in Covenant Logistics Group, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.