Australia, NZ dollars give ground to greenback, bonds buoyed by oil slide
By Wayne Cole
SYDNEY, June 25 (Reuters) - The Australian and New Zealand dollars were pinned near multi-week lows on Thursday as the greenback gained broadly, overshadowing domestic data pointing to resilience in consumer demand and employment.
Bonds were having a much better time as tumbling oil prices eased inflation concerns, perhaps helping to limit how much monetary policy will need to be tightened at home.
The Aussie was off 0.1% at $0.6892 AUD=D3, having slipped to a fresh 11-week trough of $0.6883 overnight. The next major bear target is a $0.6834 low from March, while resistance is up at $0.6979.
The kiwi dollar eased 0.2% to $0.5640 NZD=D3, after touching a seven-month low of $0.5631 overnight. Major support now lies at $0.5581, with resistance at $0.5719.
Australian data showed employment bounced back by 40,300 in May, though that was balanced by a sharp downward revision for April to a 40,600 drop. The unemployment rate eased back a tick to 4.4% as expected, but hours worked fell sharply.
Household spending rebounded by 1.3% in May, offsetting a 1.1% drop in April and suggesting consumers were holding up in the face of high petrol prices and rising interest rates.
The Reserve Bank of Australia has raised rates three times this year in an attempt to cool demand and restrain inflation, a task made easier by the rapid retreat in oil prices.
Brent was down 1.7% on Thursday and all the way back to where it was before the U.S. attacked Iran in late February.
That slide buoyed bonds, driving Australian 10-year yields AU10YT=RR to lows not seen since early March at 4.711%. The premium over Treasuries shrank to 32 basis points, from peaks around 80 basis points in March.
Markets imply around a 50-50 chance the RBA will need to hike again, likely in November, but are also increasingly pricing in rate cuts for later in 2027. 0#AUDIRPR
Investors were also scaling back wagers for how far and fast rates in New Zealand might rise. A hike in July is now priced at 66%, from above 80% a week ago, and only two moves are seen this year rather than three. 0#NZDIRPR
Kelly Eckhold, head of NZ economics at Westpac, believes the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will skip a hike in July and instead lift the 2.25% cash rate in September.
"Beyond September, we now expect just one further tightening this year – rather than two – which will probably occur at the December meeting," Eckhold said.
