AvePoint earnings jump and higher revenue guidance put Q1 performance in focus

AvePoint (AVPT) is back on investor radars after reporting first quarter revenue of US$117.24 million and net income of US$15.25 million, along with higher revenue guidance for both the second quarter and full year 2026.

The earnings beat, higher revenue guidance and progress on the buyback have arrived against a weak share price backdrop, with AvePoint’s stock down 24.9% year to date on a share price basis and the 1 year total shareholder return declining 47.7%. However, the 3 year total shareholder return is positive at 63.1%, which may signal shifting sentiment as investors reassess both growth potential and risks around the US$9.93 level.

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With AvePoint guiding to higher revenue in 2026 but the stock still down sharply over the past year, the key question is whether the current price undervalues that outlook or whether the market is already pricing in potential future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 39.7% Undervalued

Against AvePoint’s last close at $9.93, the most widely followed narrative points to a fair value of $16.48, putting a sizable valuation gap in focus.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $16.48 for AvePoint based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $26.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $13.0.

Want to see what sits behind that gap between today’s price and the narrative fair value? The focus is on how revenues, margins and earnings could scale from here, and what kind of premium multiple that might justify on those projected profits.

Result: Fair Value of $16.48 (UNDERVALUED)

However, that upside story could be challenged if AvePoint’s heavy reliance on Microsoft persists, or if higher compliance and service delivery costs continue to pressure margins.

Another View: Earnings Multiple Sends A Different Signal

While the SWS fair value model suggests AvePoint is trading 46.4% below intrinsic value, the current P/E of 45.2x paints a different picture. It is higher than both peers at 27.6x and the US Software industry at 28.3x, and also above the fair ratio of 28.1x, which points to valuation risk if expectations reset.

For a closer look at what this gap between the current P/E and the fair ratio might mean for future upside or downside, take a few minutes with the See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Next Steps

The mix of optimism and concern in this article is clear, so now is the time to review the numbers yourself and decide what matters most. To see what investors currently view as the main upsides for this stock, take a closer look at its 3 key rewards

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.