Avista stock slipped about 2% today, even though the latest earnings landed with more punch than the share price suggests. The headline is simple. This regulated utility reported a solid quarter of profit, with basic earnings per share of US$1.12 on revenue of US$570m, and that feeds into a trailing P/E that currently sits below peers and the wider US market. In the near term the stock appears cautious. Over a multi year horizon the key question is whether consistent earnings and that valuation gap can still command investor patience.

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Q1 2026 Earnings Summary

• Revenue, Q1 2026 vs. Q1 2025: US$570m vs. US$617m (lower in the latest quarter)
• Net Income, Q1 2026 vs. Q1 2025: US$92m vs. US$79m (higher in the latest quarter)
• Basic EPS, Q1 2026 vs. Q1 2025: US$1.12 vs. US$0.98 (higher in the latest quarter)
• Net Income Margin, Trailing 12 Months vs. Prior Year: 10.7% vs. 9.7% (margin higher in the latest period)

Prefer clean charts instead of scrolling through more tables and text about Avista? Check the full visual breakdown of Avista, including its valuation picture, in the company report for Avista.

Avista bulls focus on resilient earnings base

Bulls argue that Avista can deliver steady, regulated earnings as capital spending rises and clean tech volatility stays contained. The latest quarter offers some support. Utility earnings held up well enough for management to reaffirm full year 2026 non GAAP utility EPS guidance of US$2.52 to US$2.72 despite revenue that was lower than consensus for a fourth straight time. Net income and EPS for Q1 2026 were higher than Q1 2025, and trailing net margin was also higher. Nonregulated investments even added a lift through gains tied to an IPO in the EIP portfolio, with more gains expected next quarter. The regular dividend was maintained and longer term capex plans were reiterated. These are all small but clear milestones that line up with a story of a regulated earnings engine that is still functioning despite noise around load growth and capital intensity.

Avista bears point to execution and load risks

The bear view is that Avista is over reliant on debt funded capex and uncertain large load growth while facing regulatory and wildfire risk. Recent events give that view some traction. The 500 MW data center opportunity that had been pitched as a major growth driver is now paused, with management openly accepting higher timing and execution risk. Wildfires near Spokane have caused outages and asset damage that will require repair, even if cost recovery is expected. Revenue missed consensus by about 12% in Q1 2026, the fourth revenue shortfall in a row, while the stock has drifted down about 4% over 7 days and about 1% over 90 days. The Washington four year rate case also looks contentious, and management signaled a settlement is unlikely. Bears will argue these are missed milestones on growth visibility, regulatory ease and clean tech stability, even if earnings have held up so far.

Access the Avista analyst estimates for Avista to see where the consensus models start to break on revenue, earnings and free cash flow, and whether the street is quietly bracing for a sharp inflection or a long period of calm.

Stay Ahead With Your Avista View

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.