It's been a pretty great week for Axogen, Inc. (NASDAQ:AXGN) shareholders, with its shares surging 12% to US$41.77 in the week since its latest first-quarter results. The business exceeded expectations with revenue of US$61m coming in 6.4% ahead of forecasts. Statutory losses were US$0.38 a share, in line with what the analysts predicted. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Following the latest results, Axogen's nine analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$270.9m in 2026. This would be a decent 14% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 35% to US$0.39. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$265.9m and US$0.38 per share in losses. Overall it looks as though the analysts were a bit mixed on the latest consensus updates. Although revenue forecasts held steady, the consensus also made a moderate increase in its losses per share forecasts.

Despite expectations of heavier losses next year,the analysts have lifted their price target 23% to US$50.78, perhaps implying these losses are not expected to be recurring over the long term. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Axogen at US$55.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$48.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Axogen is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Axogen's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Axogen's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 19% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 14% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 7.9% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Axogen is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Axogen. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Axogen analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Axogen is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.