Investors in Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:AXSM) had a good week, as its shares rose 3.3% to close at US$139 following the release of its quarterly results. Revenues were a bright spot, with US$171m in revenue arriving 5.1% ahead of expectations, although statutory earnings didn't fare nearly so well, recording a loss of US$0.94, some 7.3% below consensus predictions. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Following the latest results, Axsome Therapeutics' 19 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$967.1m in 2026. This would be a major 72% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Axsome Therapeutics is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$0.70 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$959.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.79 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a real cut to EPS estimates.

The consensus price target held steady at US$182, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Axsome Therapeutics analyst has a price target of US$205 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$148. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Axsome Therapeutics shareholders.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The period to the end of 2026 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 55% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 66% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 9.0% annually. So it's pretty clear that Axsome Therapeutics is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Axsome Therapeutics. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Axsome Therapeutics going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You can also see our analysis of Axsome Therapeutics' Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.