BARCLAYS ON OIL: WE FORECAST A SMALL DEFICIT IN Q3 2026 IN OUR BASELINE, AS THE CYCLICAL DEMAND VECTOR IS THE STRONGEST SINCE 2022

June 16 (Reuters) - BARCLAYS:

  • MAINTAINS $100/BBL FORECAST FOR BRENT CRUDE OIL IN 2026

  • SAYS THE TIMING OF THE RESTORATION OF FREEDOM OF NAVIGATION THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ COULD FALL LARGELY IN LINE WITH OUR END-JUNE BASELINE

  • SAYS IT FORECASTS A SMALL DEFICIT IN Q3 2026 IN OUR BASELINE, AS THE CYCLICAL DEMAND VECTOR IS THE STRONGEST SINCE 2022

  • SAYS EVEN IF THE STRAIT NORMALIZES BY MONTH-END, WE EXPECT THIS TIGHTENING TREND TO PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH JULY

  • SAYS WHILE A GRADUAL EASING TOWARD $80/BBL BRENT BY END-2027 APPEARS PLAUSIBLE, IT SEES NEAR-TERM RISKS TO PRICES AS SKEWED TO THE UPSIDE


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