Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Monday launched Operation Economic Outcast against Iran, after promising in a Sunday op-ed to deliver the “single greatest financial offensive ever marshaled against an adversary.”

Traders are not convinced it will topple anyone. Polymarket gives the Islamic Republic just an 8% chance of falling before 2027. Nearly $25 million has traded on the market.

The gap reflects doubt that sanctions can bring down a government that has weathered them for decades, particularly while Washington hesitates to touch the major Chinese banks sustaining Iran’s most important trading relationship.

What Bessent’s ‘Economic D-Day’ Includes

Bessent, whose campaign the administration has branded an economic D-Day, said the pressure will continue “until this regime stands alone.”

The Treasury made five additional sectors subject to secondary sanctions: digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping. Anyone transacting with Iran in those areas may now be penalized, though the move itself sanctions no one automatically.

The department also designated nearly 60 individuals, companies and vessels accused of smuggling oil, procuring nuclear and missile technology and running cyber operations, and suspended licenses that had allowed certain payments to Iran and Iranian access to American cultural and academic institutions.

Much of the package widens Treasury’s authority to punish later rather than punishing now.

China Remains the Missing Target

China bought more than 80% of Iran’s shipped oil in 2025, according to Kpler data cited by Reuters. Monday’s designations included firms in Hong Kong and mainland China, but no major Chinese bank.

Bessent made clear that the penalties would not take effect immediately. "Why would I want to blow up the global financial system?" he said, adding that businesses and governments would receive a brief cure period. He declined to identify the countries facing penalties, though he promised sanctions against a major financial institution by the end of this week.

Bessent has counted on Beijing before with little to show for it. Still, the blockade is already biting: China’s intake of Iranian crude fell to a provisional 534,000 barrels per day in August from 823,000 in July, per Kpler.

Iran’s Regime Has Proven Resilient

Iran’s government has already survived an extraordinary succession test. Ali Khamenei was killed in the opening U.S.-Israeli strikes in February, but Iran installed his hard-line son Mojtaba, who has deep IRGC ties, as supreme leader days later.

Bessent has promised to sanction a major financial institution by week’s end. His choice will show how far Washington is truly prepared to go.

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