Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) may be quietly transitioning into a new "winter phase," even as prices remain historically elevated, a new report shows.

Bitcoin Entering New ‘Winter Phase'?

According to CryptoQuant, current conditions increasingly resemble the early stages of a broader downturn, with downside pressure gradually dominating.

This view remains unpopular.

High nominal prices, ETF adoption, institutional participation and stronger infrastructure make the present cycle feel structurally different from 2022.

However, market "winter" is defined less by price levels and more by weakening supply-demand dynamics, deteriorating capital flows and shifting sentiment.

Flow data adds to the caution.

While $10 billion in inflows during 2024 expanded Bitcoin's market cap, more than $300 billion in inflows during 2025 coincided with a declining market cap, a sign of structural selling pressure absorbing demand.

The base case suggests Bitcoin may already be entering a winter phase, with elevated prices masking underlying weakness.

That outlook would need reassessment if ETF inflows stabilized and on-chain distribution slows meaningfully.

Why ‘Buy The Dip' Isn't Always Reliable

Santiment data shows that sharp negativity and widespread "doom" predictions often align with local bottoms, creating attractive dip-buying setups.

However, simply tracking mentions of "buy the dip" is not a reliable signal, as retail often recognizes pullbacks early.

Stronger contrarian signals emerge when language shifts toward extremes — words like "crash," "down," "selling," or "going to $0" — which tend to reflect true capitulation.

Beyond sentiment, objective on-chain indicators such as the 30-day MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) provide clearer guidance.

Assets entering "Strongly Undervalued" zones, where recent buyers are deeply underwater, historically see higher rebound probabilities.

Conversely, "Strongly Overvalued" readings suggest caution.

Santiment concludes that the best dip-buying opportunities tend to appear when fear peaks, retail confidence collapses and on-chain data, not emotion, supports undervaluation.

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