One of the biggest stories of last week was how B&G Foods, Inc. (NYSE:BGS) shares plunged 22% in the week since its latest quarterly results, closing yesterday at US$4.17. The results were positive, with revenue coming in at US$409m, beating analyst expectations by 2.3%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from four analysts covering B&G Foods is for revenues of US$1.73b in 2026. This implies a measurable 4.4% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 56% to US$0.42. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$1.75b and US$0.16 per share in losses. While this year's revenue estimates held steady, there was also a sizeable expansion in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.

Although the analysts are now forecasting higher losses, the average price target rose 9.5% to 4.75, which could indicate that these losses are expected to be "one-off", or are not anticipated to have a longer-term impact on the business. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values B&G Foods at US$6.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$4.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. One more thing stood out to us about these estimates, and it's the idea that B&G Foods' decline is expected to accelerate, with revenues forecast to fall at an annualised rate of 5.8% to the end of 2026. This tops off a historical decline of 2.5% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 2.4% annually. So while a broad number of companies are forecast to grow, unfortunately B&G Foods is expected to see its revenue affected worse than other companies in the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple B&G Foods analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.