To understand whether Bilibili stock might currently offer value, it helps to start with how the share price has been behaving and what that could be telling you about expectations.

• Over the short term, Bilibili has been under pressure, with the share price down 6.3% over the last week and 14.0% over the last month, while year to date the stock has fallen 34.8%.
• Looking a bit further back, the stock has declined 15.1% over the last year and is down 85.9% over five years. Over a three year period it has recorded an 11.9% gain. Together, these figures highlight a mixed performance profile that some investors may see as either risk or opportunity.
• Recent coverage of Bilibili has focused on its position as a Chinese online entertainment and video platform, with investors watching user engagement trends and monetization efforts closely. Commentary has also highlighted the broader scrutiny on Chinese technology stocks and how regulatory and sentiment shifts can influence trading in companies like Bilibili.
• Simply Wall St currently gives Bilibili a valuation score of 3 out of 6, based on checks of whether the stock appears undervalued on several metrics. The rest of this article will walk through those approaches to valuation and finish with a way to put these methods into a clearer, narrative based view of the company.

Approach 1: Bilibili Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what Bilibili might be worth today by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting those back to a present value using a required rate of return.

For Bilibili, Simply Wall St applies a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model using cash flows in CN¥. The latest twelve month free cash flow is about CN¥5,331 million. Analyst based projections feed into near term estimates, and further out years are extrapolated, with ten year forecasts ranging from around CN¥2,955 million in 2026 to about CN¥8,496 million in 2035. Each of these projected figures is discounted to reflect the time value of money.

Adding these discounted cash flows and a terminal value gives an estimated intrinsic value of US$32.32 per share. Compared with the current market price, the model suggests that Bilibili is trading at a 46.8% discount, indicating a notable difference between this cash flow based estimate and the current stock price.

Result: UNDERVALUED IN THIS MODEL

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Bilibili is undervalued by 46.8%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 45 more high quality undervalued stocks.

Approach 2: Bilibili Price vs Earnings

For a profitable company like Bilibili, the P/E ratio is a common way to think about value because it links what you pay for each share to the earnings that the company currently generates.

In general, higher growth expectations and lower perceived risk can support a higher P/E ratio, while lower growth expectations or higher risk tend to justify a lower multiple. So the question is not whether a P/E is high or low in isolation, but whether it makes sense given the company’s profile.

Bilibili currently trades on a P/E of 34.33x. This is above the Interactive Media and Services industry average P/E of 13.02x and also above the peer group average of 19.82x. Simply Wall St’s “Fair Ratio” for Bilibili is 27.47x, which is a proprietary estimate of what the P/E might be given factors such as earnings growth, industry, profit margins, market cap and specific risks.

Compared with simple peer or industry comparisons, this Fair Ratio aims to be more tailored, as it adjusts for Bilibili’s own characteristics rather than assuming it should trade in line with broad averages. With the current P/E of 34.33x versus a Fair Ratio of 27.47x, the stock appears overvalued on this measure.

Result: OVERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Bilibili Narrative

Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Meet Narratives, a simple way for you to attach a clear story about Bilibili to the numbers you see. You can spell out your view of its future revenue, earnings and margins, link that story to a financial forecast, then to a Fair Value that you can compare with the current share price to see whether you think the stock looks attractive or expensive.

On Simply Wall St’s Community page, Narratives are an accessible tool used by millions of investors. Each Narrative captures a different view. For example, one investor might focus on AI driven advertising and long term monetization potential and arrive at a Fair Value of about US$36.21. A more cautious investor might focus on regulatory and demographic risks and anchor on a Fair Value closer to US$23.05. Because Narratives are refreshed when new information such as earnings or news is added, your Bilibili view can stay current without you rebuilding your process from scratch.

Do you think there's more to the story for Bilibili? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.