It's shaping up to be a tough period for BioNTech SE (NASDAQ:BNTX), which a week ago released some disappointing quarterly results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. Statutory earnings fell substantially short of expectations, with revenues of €106m missing forecasts by 32%. Losses exploded, with a per-share loss of €3.24 some 55% below prior forecasts. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Taking into account the latest results, the 17 analysts covering BioNTech provided consensus estimates of €1.86b revenue in 2026, which would reflect a substantial 30% decline over the past 12 months. Losses are expected to be contained, narrowing 19% from last year to €5.45. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €2.17b and losses of €4.40 per share in 2026. There's been a definite change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a notable cut to next year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.

The average price target was broadly unchanged at US$121, perhaps implicitly signalling that the weaker earnings outlook is not expected to have a long-term impact on the valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on BioNTech, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$148 and the most bearish at US$76.23 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the BioNTech's past performance and to peers in the same industry. One thing that stands out from these estimates is that revenues are expected to keep falling until the end of 2026, roughly in line with the historical decline of 43% per annum over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 23% annually. So while a broad number of companies are forecast to grow, unfortunately BioNTech is expected to see its revenue affected worse than other companies in the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple BioNTech analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.