Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) may be closer to finding its floor, but CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno warns that on-chain demand has not yet confirmed a durable bottom.

Bitcoin Rejects Key Resistance

Speaking on June 23 at Milk Road Show, Moreno said Bitcoin’s recent rejection near $80,000 was consistent with a bear market rally rather than the start of a new bull phase.

Bitcoin’s move from the low $60,000s to around $80,000 lacked the underlying spot demand needed to sustain a bull-market breakout.

Moreno pointed to the 200-day moving average as a key resistance level that Bitcoin failed to reclaim. Bitcoin has since retested the February lows, briefly trading near $59,000.

Moreno highlighted that one of his preferred bottom indicators BTC’s realized price, measuring the average price at which coins last moved, currently sits near $53,000. This puts the asset relatively close to what he calls the “value zone.”

“For me, it’s around the realized price,” Moreno said. “We’re really close.”

However, he cautioned that being close to the floor does not mean the market cannot move lower first.

At the time of writing, BTC prices slipped below $62,000 taking its seven-day loss to around 5%.

Demand Still Weak

The bigger concern is that Bitcoin demand is still contracting.

CryptoQuant’s apparent demand metric, which combines on-chain spot demand with perpetual futures activity, recently fell at its fastest pace since January 2022. This is because the earlier rally toward $80,000 was driven mainly by speculative futures demand.

Moreno also highlighted that Bitcoin ETF demand has flattened on an annual basis for the first time since spot Bitcoin ETFs launched.

He reminded how ETF holdings grew rapidly during the bull phase but have since slowed sharply, with some periods of net selling.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $2.5 billion in net outflows as of June 23 while Spot Ethereum ETFs reported a $346.4 million net outflow, according to SoSoValue data.

Capitulation Signal Not Yet Clear

Moreno tracks another metric which is realized losse measuring how much Bitcoin is moved at a loss.

Historically, major bear-market bottoms have coincided with large spikes in realized losses, signaling seller exhaustion. But the latest correction has not yet produced the same level of capitulation seen in prior cycle bottoms.

“We haven’t seen that big of a loss realization,” Moreno said.

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