Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is above the 200-day exponential moving average for the first time in three months as U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $467 million in inflows and oil crashed 6% on U.S.-Iran peace deal hopes.

Iran Peace Deal Hopes Trigger Risk-On Rally

Bitcoin climbed to $82,000, alongside a more than 1% rise in Nasdaq futures amid reports of progress toward a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding.

Axios reported Wednesday that Washington and Tehran are close to a one-page memorandum aimed at ending the war. 

The draft agreement includes negotiations between U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner and Iranian officials conducted directly and through intermediaries.

The report raised hopes for normalizing oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been mined by Iranian forces. 

Disrupted flows since late February have wreaked havoc in energy markets worldwide, especially across Asia.

Iran would agree to remove highly enriched uranium from the country, a long-standing U.S. demand Tehran previously resisted. However, some market participants questioned the likelihood of a durable breakthrough, particularly around nuclear concessions.

ETF Inflows Hit $467 Million In Single Day

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $467.35 million in inflows on May 5, marking four consecutive days of inflows and pushing total net assets to $108.98 billion.

BlackRock’s IBIT (NASDAQ:IBIT) alone absorbed $251.43 million in a single session, with Fidelity adding $133.20 million. 

Since early April’s lows around $74,000 to $75,000, Bitcoin has rallied approximately 10.5% in five weeks. 

This measured, healthy recovery is built on genuine spot demand rather than leveraged speculation.

The 200 EMA Reclaim Changes Everything

Bitcoin decisively broke above the 200 EMA at $82,093, trading near February highs. This is the technical breakthrough the market has been waiting for across three months of compression.

The ascending channel structure from February’s $61,000 lows remains perfectly intact, with all EMAs now beginning to stack bullishly beneath price. 

The 200 EMA reclaim changes the macro narrative completely.

Bulls need a weekly close above $82,500 to confirm the breakout. Next resistance sits at $85,000 to $88,000. Invalidation occurs on breakdown below $80,000.

The prospect of de-escalation was enough to trigger a broad shift in positioning, with traders moving into risk assets and out of energy exposure on expectations of reduced geopolitical friction. 

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