Blackstone stock has delivered a solid 41.3% return over the past five years, yet today the intrinsic value estimate from the Excess Returns model sits close to the market price while traditional earnings multiples lean toward the shares looking expensive.

• Over five years, Blackstone has returned 41.3%, which is respectable but not the kind of performance that on its own makes the current valuation look obviously cheap.
• Recent deals in areas like energy transition, data centers and consumer brands can support long term fee income, while regulatory pushback on transactions such as the TXNM Energy stake shows how execution risk may affect the value investors ultimately receive.
• Blackstone scores just 1 out of 6 on broader valuation checks, which points to a stock that currently leans expensive rather than a clear bargain.

The issue now is whether Blackstone's business mix and deal pipeline are strong enough to justify paying what looks like a full price for the stock.

Does Blackstone Look Fairly Valued on Excess Returns?

The Excess Returns model values Blackstone by comparing what it earns on its equity to the return investors require.

For Blackstone, the inputs are punchy. Book value is set at $10.66 per share, and stable earnings are modeled at $5.57 per share, based on forward Return on Equity estimates from seven analysts, which implies an average ROE of 45.38%. With a cost of equity of $0.98 per share, the framework assumes an annual excess return of $4.59 per share on a stable book value that grows to $12.27 per share, based on separate book value estimates from three analysts.

Those economics translate into an intrinsic value of $115.96 per share, which sits only slightly below the current share price and implies Blackstone screens about 5.3% overvalued on this method. Because the Excess Returns model is already capturing high expected profitability on fee based capital and private credit growth, the valuation appears full rather than conservative. The New Mexico ruling to unwind the TXNM Energy stake underlines that regulatory and execution risks are part of the picture, even when the core fee engine supports strong modeled returns.

Overall, the Excess Returns approach indicates that Blackstone currently trades around its intrinsic value and appears roughly fairly valued.

Blackstone is fairly valued according to our Excess Returns, but this can change at a moment's notice. Track the value in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted on when to act.

Does Blackstone Look Pricey on Earnings?

P/E is a useful anchor for Blackstone because earnings are the key link between its fee engine and what you are paying for each unit of profit. On this measure, Blackstone trades at about 31.4x earnings, which is lower than the Capital Markets industry average of 40.9x but above the peer group average of 22.7x.

The tailored fair P/E ratio for Blackstone, which weighs its growth profile, margins, size and risk, is estimated at 26.3x. Compared with the current 31.4x multiple, this suggests investors are paying a premium to what this framework indicates would be a more balanced price for the earnings stream, even after accounting for its permanent capital and private credit footprint.

On the P/E multiple alone, Blackstone appears overvalued, with the stock trading above the earnings ratio that the fair value model identifies as reasonable.

The Blackstone Narrative: What Would Justify Today's Price?

For Blackstone, the Simply Wall St Narratives serve as the bridge between the valuation puzzle above and the specific economic paths that could make the stock appear meaningfully cheap or expensive relative to today's price. Each narrative sets out a clear combination of future growth, margins and earnings for Blackstone, and links that story to a single fair value so you can see which mix of potential catalysts and risks appears to be unfolding over time on the Community page.

On Blackstone, the community splits between a bullish view that sees underappreciated earnings power and a cautious camp focused on execution and deployment risks.

Bull case: 15% undervalued

"Blackstone has raised $62 billion of inflows in Q1 2025, marking the highest level in three years, which boosts assets under management (AUM) and gives the company a strong foundation for future revenue growth…"

Bear case: 5% overvalued

"Blackstone's move into rapidly evolving and capital-intensive sectors, such as digital infrastructure and data centers, poses a risk of underperformance if technological advances shift quickly, resulting in less predictable future revenues and profitability…"

Do you think there's more to the story for Blackstone? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

The Bottom Line

For Blackstone, the Excess Returns intrinsic value estimate and the broader checks both point to a stock that is roughly fully priced rather than clearly cheap. The intrinsic value work suggests the current price already bakes in strong profitability, while the P/E framework leans towards Blackstone looking overvalued compared with its tailored fair multiple and peers. With a low overall value score, the burden of proof now sits with the company to keep translating its fundraising, deployment and fee engine into the kind of durable earnings that justify paying up, especially given the regulatory and execution risks flagged in recent deals.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.