Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT) has opened Q1 2026 earnings season with recent quarterly numbers that put revenue and EPS in clear focus, capped by Q4 2025 revenue of US$140.9 million and basic EPS of US$0.24, against a trailing twelve month revenue base of US$439.9 million and EPS of US$0.64. Over the past year, the company has seen quarterly revenue move from US$77.4 million in Q1 2025 to US$140.9 million in Q4 2025, while basic EPS has ranged from a marginal loss of about US$0.00 per share in Q1 2025 to US$0.37 in Q3 2025 and US$0.24 in Q4 2025. This sets a clear backdrop for how investors might judge the latest release as a test of income resilience and margin consistency.

See our full analysis for Blackstone Mortgage Trust.

With the headline numbers on the table, the next step is to weigh them against the key narratives around profitability, income stability, and risk that have built up around Blackstone Mortgage Trust over the past year.

TTM profitability now above US$100 million

• Over the last twelve months, Blackstone Mortgage Trust reported net income of US$109.6 million and basic EPS of US$0.64 on total revenue of US$439.9 million, after reporting losses on both revenue and net income in parts of 2024.
• Analysts' consensus view links this return to profitability with portfolio turnover and redeployment into higher quality loans, yet the data also shows five year earnings declining at about 47.4% per year, which raises questions about how durable that recent improvement really is.
  • Consensus commentary points to repayment and reinvestment into new credit opportunities and a net lease strategy in defensive sectors as drivers for more stable earnings. At the same time, the history of losses in late 2024 and modest quarterly EPS such as US$0.24 in Q4 2025 keeps execution risk in focus.
  • The same consensus expects revenue to decrease by 8.8% each year over the next three years and earnings to reach US$214.1 million by around 2029. Investors are therefore being asked to weigh improving recent profitability against a backdrop of projected revenue contraction and a longer term earnings decline.

High 9.85% yield but thin coverage

• The shares offer a 9.85% dividend yield, yet the dividend is flagged as not well covered by either earnings or free cash flow and debt is described as not well covered by operating cash flow.
• Bears focus on the cash coverage gap and impaired loans, arguing that reliance on weaker operating cash flow and interest bearing impaired assets could pressure both dividend sustainability and credit metrics.
  • Critics highlight that about US$970 million of impaired loans still incur interest expense without generating income, and that revenue and earnings are both expected to decline over the next three years, which could make it harder to support a high payout and service debt if those trends play out.
  • The same bearish view connects this to distributable earnings risk, pointing out that timing mismatches between loan repayments and redeployment into new investments can reduce the average portfolio size and therefore the earnings base that supports the current 9.85% yield.

On a yield this high, it is worth stress testing your own assumptions about future cash generation and how that lines up with dividend and debt obligations before relying on the income stream. 🐻 Blackstone Mortgage Trust Bear Case

P/E of 29.8x versus 10.1x industry

• Blackstone Mortgage Trust trades on a trailing P/E of 29.8x, compared with about 10.1x for the US Mortgage REIT industry and 13.1x for peers, while the current share price is US$19.08 and the analyst consensus price target is US$21.29.
• Bullish investors point to high quality earnings and expectations for margins to expand from 24.9% to 64.1% by around 2029, arguing that this justifies paying a higher multiple than mortgage REIT peers. Yet the same forecasts still show revenue declining and the implied 2029 P/E of 20.5x remaining roughly double the industry level.
  • Supporters often frame the valuation premium as a reflection of balance sheet optimisation, new net lease investments in defensive sectors and the use of Blackstone's broader origination platform, while detractors question paying 29.8x earnings when analysts also flag projected annual revenue declines of 8.8% over the next three years.
  • The gap between the US$19.08 share price and the US$21.29 target is about 6%, so any reassessment of those earnings and margin assumptions could have an outsized effect on a stock already trading at more than twice the sector P/E.

If you want to see how those valuation assumptions stack up against different earnings scenarios and margin paths in more detail, it is worth reviewing the full bull case materials for Blackstone Mortgage Trust. 🐂 Blackstone Mortgage Trust Bull Case

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Blackstone Mortgage Trust on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

Mixed signals on valuation, income and risk are clear here, so consider the latest figures carefully and weigh them against the company's 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs in the 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs

Explore Alternatives

Between a 9.85% dividend with thin coverage, a 29.8x P/E against a lower industry level, and impaired loans, Blackstone Mortgage Trust carries clear risk trade offs.

If you want income ideas where balance sheets and earnings support are the focus, start comparing options using the 73 resilient stocks with low risk scores to find potentially steadier candidates.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.