Blackstone Mortgage Trust stock has been under pressure in 2026, with the share price down 26.9% year to date, while the company still screens as expensive on Simply Wall St's valuation checks rather than as a clear bargain.

• Year to date the stock has declined 26.9%, which puts recent valuation questions front and centre for anyone already holding or looking at Blackstone Mortgage Trust.
• The recent decision to place about US$1b of office loans on a watch list may weigh on sentiment, while any progress in reducing exposure to weaker office assets can support confidence in future cash flows.
• Blackstone Mortgage Trust passes only 1 of 6 valuation checks, which points to a stock that leans expensive rather than obviously cheap on the broader metrics.

The issue now is whether the recent share price decline has adjusted Blackstone Mortgage Trust to a more sensible valuation or if risks around its loan book still leave little room for error.

Has Blackstone Mortgage Trust Run Too Far on Sales?

P/S is a useful cross check for Blackstone Mortgage Trust because the business is centred on interest income rather than traditional earnings growth. On this measure, Blackstone Mortgage Trust trades on a P/S of about 6.0x, compared with an industry average of roughly 4.5x and a peer average of about 4.4x for Mortgage REITs.

The Fair Ratio model, which looks at factors such as the company’s size, risk profile and revenue quality, suggests a P/S of about 2.1x would be more in line with those characteristics. That is a wide gap to the current 6.0x. Despite the recent hit from placing around US$1b of office loans on a watch list and the related earnings pressure, the stock is still priced at a premium to both peers and this tailored benchmark.

On the P/S multiple, Blackstone Mortgage Trust currently screens as overvalued compared with both its sector and the Fair Ratio indication.

The Blackstone Mortgage Trust Narrative: What Would Justify Today's Price?

Simply Wall St Narratives for Blackstone Mortgage Trust pick up from the valuation puzzle above and set out the kind of future on growth, margins and earnings that would need to play out for the stock to be worth materially more or less than today’s price, and they sit on Simply Wall St's Community page. Where a single ratio or model gives you one number, these frameworks spell out the future that number assumes so you can monitor whether it still looks realistic over time.

Want to add your own angle on whether Blackstone Mortgage Trust's move to place about US$1b of office loans on a watch list ultimately delivers for shareholders or not, and what that could mean for the stock from here? Share a Narrative in the Simply Wall St community to put a clear, number driven case on the table and see how it holds up as new results and loan book updates arrive.

Do you think there's more to the story for Blackstone Mortgage Trust? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

The Bottom Line

Blackstone Mortgage Trust still screens as overvalued on market multiples, despite the weaker value score across the broader checks. The current premium valuation leans on confidence that the loan book, including the office exposure now on the watch list, will remain manageable. For many investors, the key question is whether that confidence proves justified, or whether risks in the underlying assets eventually force the multiple closer to the more conservative fair ratio view.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.