Blue Bird (BLBD) has opened fiscal 2026 with Q1 revenue of US$333.1 million and basic EPS of US$0.97, alongside trailing twelve month revenue of about US$1.5 billion and EPS of US$4.09 that reflects a 20% earnings lift over the past year. Over recent quarters, the company has seen revenue move from US$313.9 million in Q1 2025 to US$333.1 million in Q1 2026, while basic EPS shifted from US$0.89 to US$0.97 as net profit margin held in the high single digits. With net profit margin edging up to 8.7% and the latest quarter slotting into that trend, the main focus this time is how firmly those margins hold up.

With the latest numbers on the table, the next step is to see how they line up with the most common stories around Blue Bird, where some long held views may be reinforced and others put to the test.

TTM earnings of US$129.8 million set the profit base

• Over the last twelve months, Blue Bird earned US$129.8 million of net income on US$1.5b of revenue, with basic EPS of US$4.09. This gives you a sense of the profit power behind this Q1 print.
• What stands out for a bullish view is that net profit margin of 8.7% over the last year sits alongside a 20% earnings lift. The long term five year average earnings growth of 57.5% per year is much faster, so anyone arguing for a strong long run growth story has to square today’s steadier 20% pace with those much higher historic numbers.

Curious how those headline earnings connect to the bigger picture story investors are telling each other about Blue Bird? 📊 Read the full Blue Bird Consensus Narrative.

Quarterly profit trends stay close to US$30 million

• Q1 2026 net income of US$30.8 million sits in the same ballpark as the last few quarters, which ranged from US$26.0 million to US$36.5 million. Recent profits have been clustering in a relatively tight range rather than swinging wildly.
• Bears might argue that forecasts for about 8.54% annual earnings growth and 3.8% annual revenue growth are more modest than the one year 20% earnings increase. However, the run of quarterly net income between roughly US$26 million and US$36.5 million and a TTM margin of 8.7% suggests the current profitability level is what any cautious view has to work with, not a sharply weaker earnings base.

P/E of 13.5x and DCF fair value gap draw attention

• With the share price at US$55.54 and basic EPS over the last year at US$4.09, the stock sits on a P/E of about 13.5x, which is lower than the 21.6x peer average and 28.2x for the wider US Machinery group in the data. The DCF fair value cited at roughly US$97.99 adds another reference point well above the current price.
• Supporters of a bullish angle often point to that mix of a lower P/E and the higher DCF fair value. They also have to weigh it against the slower forecast growth of 8.54% for earnings and 3.8% for revenue compared with the faster 20% earnings growth seen in the last year, so the numbers both support the idea of relative value and highlight that expectations in the dataset are for more measured growth rather than another very high growth stretch.

If you want to see how other investors are framing that gap between the current price, earnings power, and DCF fair value, Curious how numbers become stories that shape markets? Explore Community Narratives

Next Steps

Don't just look at this quarter; the real story is in the long-term trend. We've done an in-depth analysis on Blue Bird's growth and its valuation to see if today's price is a bargain. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio now so you don't miss the next big move.

See What Else Is Out There

Blue Bird’s key weak spot is that the forecast 8.54% earnings growth and 3.8% revenue growth appear much steadier compared with its historically faster expansion.

If you are concerned that this steadier outlook limits potential upside, check out 55 high quality undervalued stocks to find other companies where current prices appear more compelling relative to their earnings power.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.