BREAKINGVIEWS-No-migration economies demand big investments

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

By Jon Sindreu

LONDON, Feb 6 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The US and Britain are slashing immigration. If it falls to zero, UK GDP per head may be 2% higher by 2040 based on one estimate, thanks to more capital being spread over fewer workers. But transitioning to a stagnant population requires big investments like AI to pan out.

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The American population increased just 0.5% between July 2024 and July 2025, which was the slowest pace since 2021, figures by the U.S. Census Bureau showed on January 27. This was the result of a net international migration falling to 1.3 million from 2.7 million in 2024. Trends suggest it will drop to 321,000 by July 2026.

In the United Kingdom, stricter work visa requirements have also served to shrink net migration numbers. Recent estimates suggest they were around 200,000 in 2025, which excluding the pandemic dip would be the lowest since 2020. This figure peaked at over 900,000 in 2023, the highest level on record. A new BMG poll for The i Paper published on January 31 showed anti-immigration party Reform UK rising to 32% of prospective votes, with the ruling Labour Party scoring only 20%.


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