The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

By Afiq Fitri Alias

LONDON, June 22 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Iran’s ceasefire with the United States creates a potential economic windfall – a $300 billion reconstruction fund, tens of billions of dollars in frozen assets that might now be unlocked, and potentially even the right to charge tolls for ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. But the more reliable payoff will come from just selling more oil.

Iran’s frozen assets and the $300 billion fund are large sums. Meanwhile scope for Tehran to levy charges on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz after an initial 60‑day toll‑free period could mean a stream of payments with a present value of $50 billion. Yet it remains unclear if Iran would get unrestricted access to its frozen assets, while a reconstruction fund would depend on foreign investors' willingness to commit capital over the long term.

The oil opportunity looks more promising. Under the terms of the memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed on Wednesday, the U.S. would issue sanctions waivers allowing Iran to sell oil and access related banking, shipping and insurance services to process those transactions. That goes well beyond the narrow Treasury license issued in March — which only covered Iranian oil already loaded on tankers at sea — and would effectively open Iran's oil market for now.

In theory, this could yield some big numbers for an economy whose GDP was last year less than $400 billion. The Islamic Republic targets oil production of 4.8 million barrels a day by 2028 – sharply up from the 3 million or so daily barrels in 2025, two-thirds of which was consumed domestically. Achieving 2.8 million barrels a day in exports implied by the 2028 target, therefore, would yield about $60 billion annually. That’s assuming an $80 a barrel headline price and that Iran could sell the black stuff at the 25% discount usually required by buyers to reflect the risk of handling sanctioned goods.

True, this scenario is far-fetched. Sanctions have left a legacy of under‑investment and ageing fields – one Iranian oil executive last year estimated the country would need $180 billion in new investment to increase oil output by 1 million barrels a day. Even if that sort of cash were to become possible due to the new U.S. deal, potential sources of it wouldn’t want to wind up like TotalEnergies TTEF.PA, which signed up for Iran’s $4.8 billion South Pars project a decade ago only to pull out when President Donald Trump reimposed sanctions in 2018.

Still, even if Iran can manage 3.8 million barrels a day in production going forward – and could thus export 1.8 million barrels a day – that’s a meaningful improvement on the 2.3 million barrels a day output and just 209,000 barrels a day of exports it slumped to in May. If sanctions are relaxed even further, Iran’s pricing discount could also shrink. Assume it disappears, and Tehran could generate as much as $50 billion annually. Relative to all that, the reconstruction fund, frozen assets and tolls negotiations could pale by comparison.

CONTEXT NEWS

The interim U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding says Washington will immediately issue sanctions waivers allowing Iran to export crude oil and petroleum products and to use associated services including banking, shipping and insurance, according to the text sent by the White House to Congress on June 17.

The MoU also provides for Iran’s frozen or restricted funds to be made fully available for use, and for the development of a reconstruction and economic development plan of at least $300 billion - the details of which would be finalised during negotiations toward a permanent agreement.

The U.S. has also committed to work toward terminating all U.S. and U.N. sanctions on Iran under an agreed timetable as part of a final deal.