Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO) has beaten analyst EPS estimates for 19 straight quarters.

But last week, Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) beat on every metric and still fell 5.5%, wiping $260 billion in market value. Broadcom dropped 6% in sympathy.

The question for investors isn’t whether Hock Tan beats the number. It’s whether beating the number matters anymore.

What Prediction Markets Are Saying

Polymarket gives a 96% chance Broadcom tops the Street consensus of $2.02 non-GAAP EPS. Wall Street expects revenue of $19.18 billion, up 29% year-over-year, which would mark a new quarterly record.

The more interesting action is on Kalshi, where traders are betting on which specific words Tan and his team will say on the call.

“Hyperscaler” is at 91%.

Broadcom co-designs custom AI chips with Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) and Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:META), and supplies the networking hardware that connects AI clusters at scale.

Both companies plan to hugely increase its capital spending this year.

“Tomahawk 6” sits at 84%. That’s Broadcom’s next-generation AI networking switch.

As AI training clusters scale massively, data transfer has become one of the industry’s bottlenecks, making these speeds critical.

HSBC sees AI networking as Broadcom’s next major catalyst and recently raised its fiscal 2026 networking revenue estimate to $17 billion, 43% above Street consensus.

“OpenAI” is at 52%.

RBC noted that Anthropic’s planned procurement of up to 1 million TPUs resulted in $21 billion in rack orders for Broadcom.

Whether Tan names specific AI lab customers tonight could signal how confident he is in the pipeline.

“Acquisition” sits at 50%.

Broadcom’s $69 billion VMware deal is still being digested, and UBS has flagged VMware customer churn risk as three-year contracts come up for renewal.

Any hint of another deal would likely rattle investors.

“NVLink” at 33% and “Competition” at 30% suggest traders don’t expect Tan to talk about Nvidia directly.

“Quantum” at 14% is an afterthought.

The AI Bubble Question

A separate Polymarket contract tracking whether the AI bubble will burst by the end of 2026 sits at 20%, up from 15% in the last few days. The resolution criteria include Broadcom specifically: if AVGO falls 50% from its all-time high, it counts toward the “burst” outcome.

The stock currently trades around $317, down roughly 25% from its December peak near $412.

Broadcom trades at a forward earnings premium to both Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD), in part due to its diversified business model. Software revenue, anchored by VMware, provides a structural buffer.

The call is after market close.

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