Bumble (BMBL) has wrapped up FY 2025 with fourth quarter revenue of US$224.2 million and a basic EPS loss of US$4.06, alongside a net income loss of US$499.4 million. Over recent periods the company has seen quarterly revenue move from US$261.6 million in Q4 2024 to US$247.1 million in Q1 2025, US$248.2 million in Q2, US$246.2 million in Q3, and US$224.2 million in Q4. EPS swung between a profit of US$0.34 in Q3 and losses such as US$2.45 in Q2 and US$4.06 in Q4, setting up a story that is as much about margin pressure as it is about top line scale.

See our full analysis for Bumble.

With the headline numbers on the table, the next step is to see how this earnings profile lines up with the dominant Bumble narratives investors follow and where those stories might need a rethink.

Losses Stack Up On A US$702.4 Million TTM Basis

• Looking at the last twelve months, Bumble recorded total revenue of US$965.7 million and a net income loss of US$702.4 million, which works out to basic EPS of a US$6.03 loss over that period.
• Consensus narrative points to profit margins improving from a current loss position of about 82.5% to a 15.5% margin in around three years, and the current loss profile highlights how much room there is between today’s results and that target.
  • Trailing twelve month net losses of US$702.4 million, compared with quarterly swings between a US$37.3 million profit in Q3 2025 and a US$499.4 million loss in Q4, show that margins have been volatile while the consensus view assumes a smoother move toward profitability.
  • The path from a US$6.03 loss per share over the last twelve months to the forecast EPS of about US$1.09 by 2028 would require a significant turnaround in the earnings line relative to what the recent history of losses shows.

Revenue Trend Softens While Bulls Focus On Margins

• Over the last six reported quarters, quarterly revenue moved from US$273.6 million in Q3 2024 to US$224.2 million in Q4 2025, and the supplied outlook points to revenue declining at roughly 3.9% to 5.1% per year over the next three years.
• Bullish investors argue that profit margins could rise from about an 82.5% loss margin today to as high as 41.8% in three years, and that this earnings shift could matter more than the projected 1.5% to 5.1% annual revenue declines in the scenarios provided.
  • The bullish case expects earnings to move from a current loss of about US$850.3 million to a US$411.0 million profit by around 2028, even though revenue in that view still sits near US$984.1 million, similar to the current trailing twelve month revenue base of US$965.7 million.
  • This focus on margin improvement over top line growth contrasts with the recent revenue pattern, where revenue has edged down from over US$1.08b in the trailing twelve months at Q3 2024 to US$965.7 million by Q4 2025 while losses remained large.

Over the past year Bumble’s earnings swings and revenue drift give bulls a lot to prove around that margin story, which is exactly what the prevailing bull case tackles in more detail in the 🐂 Bumble Bull Case

Bear Case Leans On Declining Revenue And Volatile Share Price

• The risk summary shows Bumble has been unprofitable over the last year with losses increasing about 68.1% per year over five years, while revenue is projected to decline around 7.6% per year in the more cautious scenario and the share price has been more volatile than the wider US market, with the stock currently at US$4.14.
• Bears point to that combination of sustained losses and expected revenue contraction as a concern even though their own scenario still assumes margins could move from an 82.5% loss margin to an 18.8% positive margin and earnings could reach US$152.7 million by 2028.
  • The cautious narrative highlights that even at the bearish fair value view of a US$5.16 price target versus the current US$4.14 share price, the story still depends on revenue of about US$813.5 million and positive earnings of US$152.7 million that are not reflected in the latest trailing twelve month net loss of US$702.4 million.
  • The mix of higher recent share price volatility, revenue projections that decline from the current US$965.7 million base, and a five year history of growing losses is what underpins the more guarded stance despite an improving margin path built into the bearish assumptions.

Skeptics focus on those declining revenue assumptions and the history of widening losses, and you can see how that caution is framed in more detail in the 🐻 Bumble Bear Case

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Bumble on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

Curious whether the balance of risks and rewards in this article matches your own take on Bumble? Look through the numbers, weigh the stories on both sides, and then check out 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign

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Bumble’s mix of large trailing twelve month losses, softer revenue trend and share price volatility highlights meaningful business and balance sheet risk for investors to weigh.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.