** HSBC updates its view on global integrated oil stocks to reflect a "higher-for-longer" commodity backdrop, with the duration of Middle East disruption now the key variable rather than the initial price shock

** It lifts Brent assumptions to $95 a barrel for 2026 and $75 for 2027, underpinning average EPS upgrades of 13% and 11%, respectively, with the largest uplifts skewed to higher oil exposure and lower tax rates (Chevron and Exxon)

** HSBC assumes Hormuz traffic will gradually restart from mid-June, with flows returning to near-normal by end-Q3

** The broker expects incremental cash flows to be primarily allocated to balance sheets, though it sees buyback upside at TotalEnergies, Eni, Equinor and Repsol in 2026 and Shell in 2027

** Trading emerges as a key differentiator for European majors with an estimated post-tax uplift of over $4 billion across Shell, BP, Total and Equinor, largely from liquids trading

** Mark-to-market "timing effects" have distorted reported results for Exxon and Chevron and should unwind over time

** HSBC upgrades Shell and Repsol to "buy" from "hold"