C4 Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:CCCC) defied analyst predictions to release its quarterly results, which were ahead of market expectations. Revenue crushed expectations at US$6.2m, beating expectations by 39%. C4 Therapeutics reported a statutory loss of US$0.20 per share, which - although not amazing - was much smaller than the analysts predicted. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the six analysts covering C4 Therapeutics provided consensus estimates of US$19.4m revenue in 2026, which would reflect a stressful 44% decline over the past 12 months. Losses are expected to hold steady at around US$0.94. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$21.6m and losses of US$1.12 per share in 2026. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, withthe analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also reducing the estimated losses the business will incur.

The consensus price target rose 17% to US$11.57, with the analysts increasingly optimistic about shrinking losses, despite the expected decline in revenue. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values C4 Therapeutics at US$30.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$6.00. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. Over the past five years, revenues have declined around 4.1% annually. Worse, forecasts are essentially predicting the decline to accelerate, with the estimate for an annualised 54% decline in revenue until the end of 2026. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 22% annually. So while a broad number of companies are forecast to grow, unfortunately C4 Therapeutics is expected to see its revenue affected worse than other companies in the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Even so, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for C4 Therapeutics going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.