There's been a notable change in appetite for Calix, Inc. (NYSE:CALX) shares in the week since its quarterly report, with the stock down 13% to US$43.38. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$280m were what the analysts expected, Calix surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$0.16 per share, an impressive 33% above what was forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

After the latest results, the six analysts covering Calix are now predicting revenues of US$1.18b in 2026. If met, this would reflect a solid 12% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 40% to US$0.74. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.14b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.69 in 2026. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in sentiment following the latest results, given the upgrades to both revenue and earnings per share forecasts for next year.

Despite these upgrades, the consensus price target fell 7.9% to US$66.00, perhaps signalling that the uplift in performance is not expected to last. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Calix analyst has a price target of US$85.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$52.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Calix's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 16% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 8.0% per annum over the past five years. Other similar companies in the industry (with analyst coverage) are also forecast to grow their revenue at 14% per year. Calix is expected to grow at about the same rate as its industry, so it's not clear that we can draw any conclusions from its growth relative to competitors.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Calix's earnings potential next year. There was also an upgrade to revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Calix going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We also provide an overview of the Calix Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.