Shareholders of Calumet, Inc. (NASDAQ:CLMT) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 11% to US$46.04 following its latest second-quarter results. Revenues came in 29% better than analyst models expected, at US$1.4b, although statutory losses ballooned 1,823% to US$1.09, which is much worse than what was forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Calumet after the latest results.

Following the latest results, Calumet's six analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$4.98b in 2026. This would be a meaningful 8.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$2.89 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$4.58b and losses of US$3.59 per share in 2026. So it seems there's been a definite increase in optimism about Calumet's future following the latest consensus numbers, with a favorable reduction in the loss per share forecasts in particular.

The consensus price target rose 5.7% to US$41.00, with the analysts encouraged by the higher revenue and lower forecast losses for next year. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Calumet analyst has a price target of US$60.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$26.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting Calumet's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 18% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 4.8% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 1.6% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Calumet is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Calumet going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Calumet , and understanding this should be part of your investment process.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.