CNH Industrial (NYSE:CNH) has just paired its second quarter 2026 earnings with updated full year guidance, combining slightly higher sales and revenue with lower net income and earnings per share.

At a share price of US$10.91, CNH Industrial has seen a 7 day share price return of 6.44% and a year to date share price return of 16.68%. However, the 1 year total shareholder return has declined 11.38%, suggesting recent momentum contrasts with weaker longer term outcomes as investors weigh higher sales guidance against lower earnings.

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CNH Industrial has just paired firmer sales guidance with weaker earnings and a short term share price bounce. For investors weighing fresh exposure, the question is whether the current price still offers an appealing risk reward, or whether most of the upside has already been used.

Most Popular Narrative: 18% Undervalued

CNH Industrial's most followed narrative puts fair value at about $13.31, above the last close of $10.91. That gap is built on specific long term earnings and margin assumptions.

The integration of advanced connectivity and precision technologies (e.g., the Starlink partnership, FieldOps platform, in-house tech stack) positions CNH to capture greater recurring, higher-margin revenue streams from software, data, and tech-enabled services, supporting net margin and long-term earnings growth.

Read the complete narrative. Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what is behind that higher fair value for CNH Industrial? The narrative leans on faster earnings growth, firmer margins, and a future earnings multiple that is expected to compress over time. The key is how revenue, profitability and share count are all expected to move together.

Result: Fair Value of $13.31 (UNDERVALUED)

However, CNH Industrial still faces pressure from high financial leverage and weak demand expectations for agriculture and construction equipment, which could weigh on the bullish earnings narrative.

Another View on CNH Industrial's Valuation

The main CNH Industrial narrative leans on earnings forecasts and a target P/E of 16.5x in 2029. Yet the stock currently trades on a much higher P/E of 43.4x, compared with a fair ratio of 45.7x and a peer average of 24.2x. That gap raises a simple question: is the market pricing in too much, or are peers the ones that need to catch up?

To see how this P/E picture fits into a fuller valuation breakdown for CNH Industrial, including where the fair ratio could move over time, See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out CNH Industrial for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 52 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

With sentiment pulled between concerns and optimism, this is a moment to look directly at the numbers and decide quickly where you stand. Start by weighing the 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs highlighted in 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.