Capital Economics sees oil at $150 per barrel through 2027 in an extreme case
May 15 (Reuters) - Capital Economics said that in an extreme scenario where the Iran war escalates, Brent crude prices could rise above $150 a barrel and remain around that level until the end of 2027.
The bank in a note dated Thursday said that given uncertainty around the Iran conflict, they have framed their forecasts around two scenarios - a baseline case in which energy flows resume soon, and an adverse scenario where further damage to energy infrastructure lifts oil prices to $130 per barrel mid-year before edging back gradually.
In an extreme scenario where the Iran war escalates beyond the bank's baseline and adverse scenarios, with Brent at around $150 per barrel into 2027, it estimates that headline inflation for advanced economies would rise by around 2.5 percentage points in the second half of that year on average.
Oil prices gained more than 3% on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump said his patience with Iran is running out, adding to concerns over the lack of progress on a peace deal to end ship attacks and seizures around the Strait of Hormuz. O/R
Brent crude futures LCOc1 gained 3.4% to $109.29 a barrel by 0944 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures CLc1 were up 3.7% at $104.88.
If the Strait remains closed and OECD oil inventories continue declining at the pace seen in April, stocks could reach critically low levels by the end of June and result in an increase in Brent to at least $140 per barrel, Capital Economics noted.
Meanwhile, if cooling-related demand for LNG rises by more than usual in Asia over summer and an unseasonably cold winter in Europe raises heating demand, the price of TTF could plausibly average 100 euros per MWh.
