Cardlytics, Inc. (NASDAQ:CDLX) just released its latest first-quarter results and things are looking bullish. Revenues and losses per share were both better than expected, with revenues of US$38m leading estimates by 3.5%. Statutory losses were smaller than the analystsexpected, coming in at US$0.08 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the five analysts covering Cardlytics, is for revenues of US$154.8m in 2026. This implies a concerning 27% reduction in Cardlytics' revenue over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 59% to US$0.79. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$162.9m and losses of US$1.11 per share in 2026. While the revenue estimates fell, sentiment seems to have improved, with the analysts making a very promising decrease in losses per share in particular.

The consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$1.08, implying that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite adjustments to both revenue and earnings estimates. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Cardlytics, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$1.50 and the most bearish at US$0.80 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 34% annualised decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 0.3% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 2.5% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Cardlytics' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Still, earnings per share are more important to value creation for shareholders. The consensus price target held steady at US$1.08, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Cardlytics going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.