Carrier Global (CARR) opened 2026 with Q1 revenue of US$5.3b and basic EPS of US$0.29, alongside net income from continuing operations of US$239m that sets the tone for this earnings season. The company has seen quarterly revenue move from US$5.1b in Q4 2024 to US$5.3b in Q1 2026, while basic EPS has ranged from US$0.03 in Q4 2025 to US$0.71 in Q2 2025, giving investors a clear view of how profitability has tracked through recent quarters and into today's margin picture.

See our full analysis for Carrier Global.

With the headline numbers on the table, the next step is to see how these results line up with the prevailing stories about Carrier Global's growth profile, risk factors, and long term earnings potential.

Net profit margin at 5.9% on US$21.9b of trailing revenue

• Over the last 12 months, Carrier generated US$21.9b of revenue and US$1.3b of net income from continuing operations, which works out to a 5.9% net profit margin versus 6.0% a year earlier.
• What bullish investors highlight is that this mid single digit margin today sits alongside forecasts for earnings to grow about 18.4% per year, so they expect:
  • That US$1.3b of trailing net income can increase from here even though the trailing margin has only moved slightly from 6.0% to 5.9%.
  • That margin expansion, not just revenue growth of roughly 4.9% per year, does much of the work in lifting EPS above the trailing US$1.52 level.

Bulls argue Carrier’s current 5.9% margin is only a starting point for EPS growth, so it is worth seeing how that claim stacks up against the full bullish case in 🐂 Carrier Global Bull Case.

EPS swings and bears’ focus on earnings track record

• Quarterly basic EPS has moved from a loss of US$0.05 in Q4 2024 to US$0.71 in Q2 2025 and then to US$0.29 in Q1 2026, while trailing EPS over the last year sits at US$1.52 alongside a 5 year annual earnings decline of 16.3%.
• Skeptical investors point to this pattern as support for the bearish view that the earnings path is uneven, even with healthy long term forecasts:
  • The step down from US$0.71 in Q2 2025 to US$0.29 in Q1 2026, plus the 5 year earnings decline, sits awkwardly next to projections for earnings to reach around US$3.0b by 2029 in the cautious scenario.
  • At the same time, the last 12 months still produced US$1.3b of net income, so bears are focusing less on survival risk and more on whether the historical volatility justifies paying up for that future growth story.

Skeptics warn that the 5 year earnings decline and bumpy EPS history make the more optimistic paths to higher profits look demanding, which you can see unpacked in 🐻 Carrier Global Bear Case.

P/E of 44.1x vs industry and DCF fair value

• Carrier is trading on a trailing P/E of 44.1x at a share price of US$67.62, compared with a US Building industry average of 20.8x and a DCF fair value cited at US$60.08.
• Here, the consensus style narrative meets the numbers head on, because:
  • Analysts’ price target of US$74.64 sits above the current US$67.62 price even though the DCF fair value is lower at US$60.08, which shows how projected earnings growth and margin improvement can lead to a higher target than a cash flow model alone suggests.
  • The main risk flag that debt is not well covered by operating cash flow gives investors another angle to weigh against that 44.1x P/E, especially when the industry trades near half that multiple.

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Carrier Global on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

Mixed messages in the data or a clear story taking shape, either way it helps to look at the details yourself and decide how comfortable you are with the balance of risks and rewards, then review the 1 key reward and 1 important warning sign.

See What Else Is Out There

Carrier’s high 44.1x P/E, modest 5.9% net margin, uneven EPS history and a warning on debt coverage may leave you questioning the risk trade off.

If those pressure points make you want steadier footing, compare this profile with companies in the 67 resilient stocks with low risk scores that score better on valuation, earnings consistency and balance sheet strength.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.