CEE MARKETS-Forint near multi-year peak as FX holds gains, eyes Iran peace deal
P10, INC. PX | 0.00 |
WARSAW, June 16 (Reuters) - Hungary's forint traded near its highest level since September 2021 as central European currencies drifted in largely horizontal trade on Tuesday, with market participants awaiting details on a peace deal to end the war U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday a preliminary agreement to end the conflict had been signed by the United States and Iran, although details have yet to be made public and both countries said a permanent truce was yet to be negotiated, fuelling doubts about the final outcome.
"I think that the longer we wait, the more the market will be afraid of another disappointment," said a Warsaw-based currency trader.
The Hungarian forint EURHUF= hovered around its Monday high, trading at 350.05 per euro.
The Czech crown EURCZK=, meanwhile, was little changed at 24.154 to the euro, just off the 6-month high it hit on Monday.
The Czech National Bank could raise interest rates for the first time in four years on Thursday, with a narrow majority of analysts in a Reuters poll forecasting a move to tame inflationary pressure.
However, the prospect of an end to the Iran war has forced markets to reconsider the extent of potential monetary policy tightening in the region.
"The US-Iran peace deal brought expected relief across the market yesterday, including the CEE region, particularly visible in the rates space," analysts at ING said in a note.
"All three major markets in the region saw a rally in the IRS curve of around 10-20bp and a significant reduction in rate hike pricing."
Komercni Banka analysts said in a note that they still expected a hike on Thursday but that the risks to this scenario were "considerable".
"If the market's hawkish expectations are not met, the crown could weaken slightly from its current strong levels."
The Polish zloty EURPLN= was 0.08% firmer at 4.246.
"It seems that a lot... of the positive impacts that we get from the deal or from the reduction of geopolitical risks was all priced in," said Piotr Bartkiewicz, an economist at Bank Pekao.
CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1018 CET |
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CURRENCIES |
Latest trade |
Previous close |
Daily change |
Change in 2026 |
|
Czech crown |
EURCZK= |
24.1540 |
24.1480 |
-0.02% |
+0.05% |
Hungary forint |
EURHUF= |
350.0500 |
350.1400 |
+0.03% |
+9.80% |
Polish zloty |
EURPLN= |
4.2460 |
4.2495 |
+0.08% |
-0.72% |
Romanian leu |
EURRON= |
5.2323 |
5.2392 |
+0.13% |
-2.64% |
Serbian dinar |
EURRSD= |
117.2800 |
117.3800 |
+0.09% |
+0.02% |
Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET |
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STOCKS |
Latest |
Previous close |
Daily change |
Change in 2026 |
|
Prague |
.PX |
2582.81 |
2571.1300 |
+0.45% |
-3.83% |
Budapest |
.BUX |
138468.92 |
137602.78 |
+0.63% |
+24.71% |
Warsaw |
.WIG20 |
3722.63 |
3672.16 |
+1.37% |
+16.92% |
Bucharest |
.BETI |
30099.82 |
30169.88 |
-0.23% |
+23.16% |
|
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BONDS |
Yield (bid) |
Yield change |
Spread vs Bund |
Daily change in spread |
|
Czech Rep 2-year |
CZ2YT=RR |
3.9227 |
-0.0267 |
+136bps |
-2bps |
Czech Rep 5-year |
CZ5YT=RR |
4.1667 |
-0.0139 |
+152bps |
+0bps |
Czech Rep 10-year |
CZ10YT=RR |
4.6782 |
-0.0619 |
+174bps |
-5bps |
Poland 2-year |
PL2YT=RR |
4.1240 |
-0.1010 |
+156bps |
-9bps |
Poland 5-year |
PL5YT=RR |
4.9510 |
-0.1080 |
+230bps |
-9bps |
Poland 10-year |
PL10YT=RR |
5.4340 |
-0.0490 |
+250bps |
-3bps |
|
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FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS |
3x6 |
6x9 |
9x12 |
3M interbank |
|
Czech Rep |
CZKFRA, PRIBOR= |
3.91 |
4.03 |
4.13 |
3.62 |
Poland |
PLNFRA, WIBOR= |
3.87 |
3.93 |
3.99 |
3.86 |
Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices |
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