CEE MARKETS-Forint near multi-year peak as FX holds gains, eyes Iran peace deal

P10, INC.

P10, INC.

PX

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- Hungary's forint traded near its highest level since September 2021 as central European currencies drifted in largely horizontal trade on Tuesday, with market participants awaiting details on a peace deal to end the war U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday a preliminary agreement to end the conflict had been signed by the United States and Iran, although details have yet to be made public and both countries said a permanent truce was yet to be negotiated, fuelling doubts about the final outcome.

"I think that the longer we wait, the more the market will be afraid of another disappointment," said a Warsaw-based currency trader.

The Hungarian forint EURHUF= hovered around its Monday high, trading at 350.05 per euro.

The Czech crown EURCZK=, meanwhile, was little changed at 24.154 to the euro, just off the 6-month high it hit on Monday.

The Czech National Bank could raise interest rates for the first time in four years on Thursday, with a narrow majority of analysts in a Reuters poll forecasting a move to tame inflationary pressure.

However, the prospect of an end to the Iran war has forced markets to reconsider the extent of potential monetary policy tightening in the region.

"The US-Iran peace deal brought expected relief across the market yesterday, including the CEE region, particularly visible in the rates space," analysts at ING said in a note.

"All three major markets in the region saw a rally in the IRS curve of around 10-20bp and a significant reduction in rate hike pricing."

Komercni Banka analysts said in a note that they still expected a hike on Thursday but that the risks to this scenario were "considerable".

"If the market's hawkish expectations are not met, the crown could weaken slightly from its current strong levels."

The Polish zloty EURPLN= was 0.08% firmer at 4.246.

"It seems that a lot... of the positive impacts that we get from the deal or from the reduction of geopolitical risks was all priced in," said Piotr Bartkiewicz, an economist at Bank Pekao.



CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1018 CET




CURRENCIES


Latest trade

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2026

Czech crown

EURCZK=

24.1540

24.1480

-0.02%

+0.05%

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

350.0500

350.1400

+0.03%

+9.80%

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.2460

4.2495

+0.08%

-0.72%

Romanian leu

EURRON=

5.2323

5.2392

+0.13%

-2.64%

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

117.2800

117.3800

+0.09%

+0.02%

Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET






STOCKS


Latest

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2026

Prague

.PX

2582.81

2571.1300

+0.45%

-3.83%

Budapest

.BUX

138468.92

137602.78

+0.63%

+24.71%

Warsaw

.WIG20

3722.63

3672.16

+1.37%

+16.92%

Bucharest

.BETI

30099.82

30169.88

-0.23%

+23.16%



BONDS

Yield (bid)

Yield change

Spread vs Bund

Daily change in spread

Czech Rep 2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.9227

-0.0267

+136bps

-2bps

Czech Rep 5-year

CZ5YT=RR

4.1667

-0.0139

+152bps

+0bps

Czech Rep 10-year

CZ10YT=RR

4.6782

-0.0619

+174bps

-5bps







Poland 2-year

PL2YT=RR

4.1240

-0.1010

+156bps

-9bps

Poland 5-year

PL5YT=RR

4.9510

-0.1080

+230bps

-9bps

Poland 10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.4340

-0.0490

+250bps

-3bps

FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS


3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

CZKFRA, PRIBOR=

3.91

4.03

4.13

3.62

Poland

PLNFRA, WIBOR=

3.87

3.93

3.99

3.86

Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices