Celsius Holdings (CELH) Margin Compression To 3.9% Tests Bullish Growth Narratives
Celsius Holdings, Inc. CELH | 0.00 |
Celsius Holdings (CELH) has put up a busy start to 2026, reporting Q1 revenue of US$782.6 million and basic EPS of US$0.33, alongside trailing twelve month revenue of US$3.0 billion and EPS of US$0.44. Over recent quarters the company has seen revenue move from US$332.2 million in Q4 2024 to between roughly US$329.3 million and US$739.3 million through 2025, while EPS has ranged from a loss of US$0.27 per share in Q3 2025 to US$0.35 per share in Q2 2025. With trailing net profit margins at 3.9% compared with 5.8% a year earlier, this latest print keeps the focus squarely on how efficiently Celsius is converting strong top line into lasting profitability.
See our full analysis for Celsius Holdings.Next up, the numbers will be set against the most widely followed stories around Celsius to see which narratives are supported by the latest margin trends and which start to look out of date.
TTM earnings up 48.6% despite Q3 loss
- Over the last 12 months, earnings growth is cited at 48.6%, even though Q3 2025 included a loss of US$70.7 million on revenue of US$725.1 million.
- What stands out for the bullish narrative is that this loss sits beside Q2 2025 net income of US$91.0 million and Q1 2026 net income of US$85.1 million. This strongly supports the idea of solid earnings power while also highlighting the need for bulls to explain how one-off items such as the US$428.8 million charge fit with expectations for smoother profit growth ahead.
- Bulls point to multi year average earnings growth of 36.2% and high forecast earnings growth of about 27% per year, and the recent profitability in three of the last four quarters is consistent with that story.
- At the same time, the presence of a large one off loss in the trailing period is a clear reminder that reported earnings can be lumpy, so anyone leaning on the bullish case needs to look closely at which parts of that growth are recurring versus driven by adjustments.
Margins soften to 3.9% as costs bite
- Trailing 12 month net profit margin is 3.9%, down from 5.8% a year earlier, even with TTM revenue at about US$3.0b and TTM net income at US$114.5 million.
- Critics highlight this margin compression to support the bearish narrative that rising input costs, lower margin acquisitions and higher marketing and operating spend are weighing on profitability, and the numbers here line up with that concern.
- The margin step down from 5.8% to 3.9% fits with bears focus on cost inflation and a structurally lower margin Alani Nu profile, because it shows that higher sales have not translated into a higher share of profits over the past year.
- The US$428.8 million one off loss in the period also matters for the bearish case, as it reinforces their argument that earnings quality and consistency are key issues to watch rather than assuming headline growth will translate cleanly into stable margins.
Rich 76.9x P/E versus DCF fair value
- The stock is trading on a P/E of 76.9x compared with about 18x for the global beverage industry and 48.7x for peers, while an internal DCF fair value of US$90.83 sits well above the current share price of US$34.26.
- Consensus style commentary flags this as a key tension, because the high multiple suggests investors are already paying a premium relative to sector benchmarks, yet the DCF fair value implies a large valuation gap. Readers need to decide whether the strong trailing and forecast earnings growth is enough to justify both the rich P/E and the gap to the cited DCF estimate.
- The difference between 76.9x P/E and industry peers around 18x to 48.7x underlines how reliant the current price is on the earnings growth profile that analysts expect, including the cited high single digit revenue growth and higher earnings growth.
- At the same time, setting a DCF fair value of US$90.83 against a US$34.26 share price frames the debate around whether current cash flow and margin trends align with the more optimistic long term assumptions built into that model.
Next Steps
To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Celsius Holdings on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.
With mixed signals around margins, valuation and one off items, the real question is how you interpret the balance of risks and rewards in the numbers. If you want a clearer picture before making any moves, start by weighing the 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.
See What Else Is Out There
Celsius is working with a 3.9% net margin, a recent one off loss and a rich 76.9x P/E, so reliability and valuation look stretched.
If you want stocks where pricing looks less demanding and fundamentals do more of the heavy lifting, check out the 51 high quality undervalued stocks while this earnings story is fresh in your mind.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
