Centrus Energy (LEU) has agreed to supply high-assay low-enriched uranium for Oklo’s planned 1.2 GW Aurora power campus in Ohio, addressing a key fuel constraint and sparking fresh attention on the stock.

The Oklo agreement has arrived alongside other company updates, including governance changes and a refreshed finance leadership team. The stock has reacted sharply, with a 12.4% 1-day share price return lifting short-term momentum, even as the year-to-date share price return remains down 29.8% and the 3-year total shareholder return is very large.

If this HALEU deal has you looking more broadly at nuclear-related opportunities, it could be worth checking out 89 nuclear energy infrastructure stocks

With Centrus Energy now tied more closely to Oklo’s HALEU plans, the stock trades about 42% below an estimated intrinsic value and around 45% below analyst targets. This raises the question: is there still a buying opportunity, or is expected growth already priced in?

Most Popular Narrative: 68.6% Undervalued

Centrus Energy last closed at $191.39, while the most followed narrative on the stock points to a fair value of $609.90, implying a very wide gap between price and perceived worth and putting extra focus on the company’s unique position in the US nuclear fuel chain.

Centrus Energy is one of those rare companies whose importance becomes clearer the deeper you look into the machinery of U.S. law, national security, and nuclear policy. In a sector defined by scarcity, Centrus isn’t just another uranium name; it is the only U.S. company legally authorized to enrich uranium for the federal government, a distinction rooted directly in federal statute. Under 10 U.S.C. § 2538a, the U.S. government is prohibited from purchasing enriched uranium for defense purposes from any entity that is not a U.S.-owned, U.S.-operated, and NRC-licensed enricher. That legal filter leaves exactly one company standing: Centrus. And that is before you even get to the fact that Centrus is also the only firm with an NRC license to produce HALEU, the fuel required for nearly every advanced reactor design the U.S. is trying to deploy.

According to RetiredbutWorking, this valuation rests on Centrus Energy sitting at the legal chokepoint of US enrichment, with revenue, margins and future earnings power all modeled around that exclusive HALEU role. Want to see how those assumptions combine into a fair value more than triple the current share price, and what kind of long term profitability profile is baked into that narrative.

Result: Fair Value of $609.90 (UNDERVALUED)

However, Centrus Energy’s narrative could be challenged if HALEU demand rolls out more slowly than expected, or if regulatory shifts reduce the value of its exclusive licenses.

Another View: Centrus Energy Looks Expensive On P/E

While the most popular Centrus Energy narrative leans on a higher fair value, the current P/E of 62.1x tells a different story. It sits far above the US Oil and Gas industry at 12.9x, peers at 11x, and a fair ratio of 9.5x, which points to meaningful valuation risk if expectations cool.

These gaps suggest the share price could have a long way to fall if the market starts to move closer to that fair ratio rather than the growth profile implied today. Investors may wish to consider how comfortable they are with paying this kind of premium for Centrus Energy.

Next Steps

With opinions on Centrus Energy split between upside and valuation risk, it makes sense to move quickly and independently stress test the numbers and assumptions yourself using the 1 key reward and 5 important warning signs

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.