Century Aluminum (CENX) is in focus after a new U.S. executive order offered tariff incentives for domestic primary aluminum projects, coinciding with its plan to build a large Oklahoma smelter in partnership with Emirates Global Aluminum.

At a share price of $42.84, Century Aluminum has seen short term pressure, with the 30 day share price return down 17.15% and the 90 day share price return down 30.23%, even as the 1 year total shareholder return is 92.97% and the 3 year total shareholder return is around 4x. This suggests long term holders have experienced a very strong run into this latest policy backed expansion plan.

If this kind of policy linked growth story interests you, it can be useful to look across other materials producers and related miners using our curated list of 8 top copper producer stocks

Century Aluminum now trades at a steep discount to both analyst targets and estimated fair value after its policy supported Oklahoma project announcement. Is this simply caution catching up with a hot stock, or an opportunity mispriced?

Most Popular Narrative: 46.4% Undervalued

With Century Aluminum trading at $42.84 against a narrative fair value of $80, the current pullback sits against a much higher long term earnings story.

The expansion and restart of Mt. Holly, along with progress on a new U.S. smelter, positions Century Aluminum to meaningfully increase U.S. primary aluminum production, capturing rising domestic demand driven by reshoring of supply chains and incentivized by government tariffs and trade protections, supporting future revenue growth and improved fixed cost absorption, thus enhancing net margins.

Curious what earnings trajectory, margin profile, and future valuation multiple have to look like for that $80 figure to stack up? The underlying narrative leans on rapid profit expansion, rising domestic volumes, and a lower future P/E than many current sector peers, all wired into a single discounted cash flow path that you can scrutinize line by line.

Result: Fair Value of $80 (UNDERVALUED)

However, that $80 fair value narrative for Century Aluminum leans heavily on sustained Section 232 tariff support and stable energy and raw material costs, both of which could shift and rapidly change the outlook.

Next Steps

With sentiment on Century Aluminum so split, it helps to move quickly, review the full picture yourself, and weigh up the 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

Looking for more investment ideas beyond Century Aluminum?

If Century Aluminum has sharpened your focus on where capital goes next, do not stop here. The next move could be sitting in plain sight.

• Target potential mispricings by checking stocks highlighted in our 45 high quality undervalued stocks.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.