Century Aluminum (CENX) is back in focus after a series of supply shocks in the global aluminum market and company specific moves, including a new Oklahoma smelter joint venture and recent asset reshuffling.

The recent surge in Century Aluminum’s share price, including a 26.54% 7 day share price return and a very large 3 year total shareholder return, reflects rising interest after supply disruptions, Oklahoma smelter plans, and upgraded outlooks from lenders and partners.

If you are looking for other materials names benefiting from metal supply and infrastructure themes, this is a good moment to scan the 8 top copper producer stocks.

With Century Aluminum now at US$63.51 and sitting only about 4% below the average analyst price target of US$66, yet trading on an estimated intrinsic value discount of roughly 73%, is there still a genuine opportunity here, or is the market already pricing in years of future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 3.8% Undervalued

With Century Aluminum at $63.51 versus a narrative fair value of $66, the most followed view sees modest upside under a very specific set of assumptions.

The expansion and restart of Mt. Holly, along with progress on a new U.S. smelter, positions Century Aluminum to meaningfully increase U.S. primary aluminum production, capturing rising domestic demand driven by reshoring of supply chains and incentivized by government tariffs and trade protections. This supports future revenue growth and improved fixed cost absorption, thus enhancing net margins. Expected sustained tightness in global primary aluminum supply (with China near capacity caps and minimal new ex China projects) should maintain favorable pricing levels and strong Midwest premiums, especially as U.S. demand rebounds from infrastructure and electrification trends, providing a tailwind for top line growth and improved EBITDA.

Want to see what sits behind that fair value tag? The narrative leans on compound revenue growth, sharply higher margins, and a very different earnings profile. The full set of projections shows how those moving parts connect to $66 and beyond the current $63.51.

Result: Fair Value of $66 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this story still leans heavily on Section 232 tariffs and firm Midwest premiums, while large capital expenditures for Mt. Holly and Oklahoma could strain future returns.

Next Steps

With all this in mind, are investors leaning too much into optimism or caution here? Consider your position while the story is still developing and weigh up the 2 key rewards and 4 important warning signs.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If you want to broaden your watchlist beyond Century Aluminum, this is the moment to scan a few focused stock lists that match your investing style.

• Target steady value by reviewing companies flagged in the 63 high quality undervalued stocks.
• Prioritize resilience by checking out businesses featured in the 65 resilient stocks with low risk scores.
• Hunt for potential future standouts by scanning the screener containing 25 high quality undiscovered gems.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.