Certara (CERT) opened 2026 with Q1 revenue of US$106.9 million and a loss of US$8.8 million, or EPS of US$0.06. Trailing twelve month revenue stood at US$419.7 million with a loss of US$15.1 million and EPS of US$0.09. Over the recent reporting periods, the company has seen quarterly revenue move in a tight band between US$100.4 million and US$106.9 million, with EPS ranging from a profit of US$0.04 to a loss of US$0.06. This sets up a story that now focuses on how quickly margins can repair from current loss-making levels.

See our full analysis for Certara.

With the latest numbers on the table, the next step is to see how this margin profile lines up with the widely followed narratives around Certara's growth potential and path back to profitability.

Losses Widen Again On TTM Basis

• On a trailing twelve month view, Certara moved from a small net loss of US$1.6 million a year ago to a larger loss of US$15.1 million, with basic EPS shifting from a loss of US$0.01 to a loss of US$0.09 over the same period.
• What is notable for the bullish view that earnings could grow around 57.72% a year and turn profitable within three years is that this TTM loss sits alongside earlier periods where TTM net income was positive at US$7.9 million and US$10.9 million, so:
  • Bulls pointing to a path back to profit can reference that the business has already reported positive TTM earnings within the last year, not just theoretical margin targets.
  • At the same time, the recent swing back to a larger TTM loss means the bullish case relies on a clear improvement from where the company is currently reporting, rather than a steady continuation of past TTM profitability.

On this view, bulls are effectively arguing that recent setbacks are temporary and that TTM earnings can return to the positive territory seen in earlier quarters, which is a key question for anyone weighing the upside against current losses. 🐂 Certara Bull Case

Modest 0.8% Revenue Growth Vs Strong EPS Forecasts

• Revenue over the last 12 months is reported to have grown 0.8% annually to US$419.7 million, which is slower than the 11.6% per year growth that is quoted for the broader US market, while analysts are still forecasting earnings growth of about 57.72% a year.
• Critics in the bearish narrative highlight that recent organic growth has been around the low single digits and question whether earnings can scale quickly if revenue growth stays modest, and the current numbers give them material points to work with:
  • The 0.8% revenue growth rate is well below the 7.4% to 8.8% annual growth assumptions used at the bearish and bullish ends of the analyst range, which both depend on stronger top line progress than the last year shows.
  • Because the company remains loss making on a TTM basis, any bearish view that earnings targets are demanding relative to current revenue trends finds support in the gap between slow reported revenue growth and the much faster forecast earnings trajectory.

Skeptics are basically asking you to focus on whether earnings forecasts are too optimistic given that reported revenue growth is still running at only 0.8% a year. 🐻 Certara Bear Case

Trading Below DCF Fair Value And In Line On P/S

• The shares trade at a P/S of 1.9x, in line with peers and slightly below the US Healthcare Services industry average of 2.1x, and sit below an indicated DCF fair value of about US$9.70 per share compared with a current share price of US$5.09.
• Supporters of the bullish and consensus narratives point out that the stock price being below both the DCF fair value and the 7.73 analyst target is consistent with the market applying a discount while forecasts call for a shift back to profitability, and the figures underline that tension:
  • The roughly 47.5% gap between the current price and the DCF fair value indicates that investors are not paying up for the forecast improvement in margins and earnings yet, even though analysts are modelling a move from current losses to positive EPS.
  • Because the P/S multiple of 1.9x is not out of line with peers, the potential upside in the DCF and target scenarios rests more on future earnings and margin recovery than on the market rerating the sales multiple alone.

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Certara on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

Given the mixed tone around growth, margins and valuation, this is a moment to look directly at the underlying data and make a call quickly for yourself. To see what is driving the optimism, review our breakdown of the company's rewards in the 2 key rewards.

See What Else Is Out There

Certara is still reporting TTM losses and only 0.8% annual revenue growth, so the upbeat earnings forecasts sit against a cautious recent track record.

If you are concerned about slow growth and loss making results, you could consider focusing on companies with stronger fundamentals by checking out the solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (46 results) today.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.