Overview

• Biosimulation software provider's Q1 revenue rose 1%, slightly beating analyst expectations

• Adjusted EPS for Q1 missed analyst expectations

• Company completed sale of medical writing and regulatory services business in Q1

Outlook

• Certara expects 2026 revenue of $395 mln to $405 mln, including $18 mln from divested business

• Company forecasts 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin of 30% to 32%

• Certara expects 2026 adjusted diluted EPS of $0.35 to $0.41

Result Drivers

• SOFTWARE DEMAND - Software revenue rose 7% year-over-year, which the company attributed to strong customer demand across its platform

• SERVICES CHALLENGES - Services revenue fell 4% year-over-year, with the company citing execution and go-to-market challenges that it expects to resolve in the second half of the year

• HIGHER OPERATING EXPENSES - Operating expenses increased mainly due to higher business acquisition contingent consideration, employee-related costs, equipment and software expenses, executive recruiting and retention expenses, and lease abandonment costs

Company press release: ID:nGNX2FlFkS

Key Details

Metric	Beat/Miss	Actual	Consensus Estimate
Q1 Revenue	Slight Beat*	$106.90 mln	$106.10 mln (10 Analysts)
Q1 Adjusted EPS	Miss	$0.09	$0.11 (11 Analysts)
Q1 EPS		-$0.06
Q1 Adjusted Net Income		$14.50 mln
Q1 Net Income		-$8.80 mln
Q1 Adjusted EBITDA		$31.70 mln
Q1 Pretax Profit		-$7.94 mln

*Applies to a deviation of less than 1%; not applicable for per-share numbers.

Analyst Coverage

• The current average analyst rating on the shares is "buy" and the breakdown of recommendations is 6 "strong buy" or "buy", 8 "hold" and no "sell" or "strong sell"

• The average consensus recommendation for the software peer group is "buy"

• Wall Street's median 12-month price target for Certara Inc is $9.25, about 46.6% above its May 8 closing price of $6.31

• The stock recently traded at 14 times the next 12-month earnings vs. a P/E of 16 three months ago

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