Overview

• Nitrogen fertilizer maker's Q1 revenue rose yr/yr, beating analyst expectations

• Adjusted EPS for Q1 rose yr/yr; net earnings benefited from $170 mln litigation settlement gain

• Company repurchased $15 mln in shares and launched low-carbon UAN collaboration with PepsiCo

Outlook

• CF Industries expects full-year 2026 gross ammonia production of about 9.5 mln tons

• Company projects 2026 capital expenditures of about $1.3 bln, including $950 mln for CF Industries

• Management expects global nitrogen supply-demand balance to remain tighter than expected in near- and medium-term

Result Drivers

• HIGHER SELLING PRICES - Co said tight global nitrogen supply-demand balance, worsened by Middle East conflict, led to higher average selling prices across all segments

• SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS - Lower sales volumes in UAN and AN segments due to production outage at Yazoo City Complex and product mix favoring urea

• HIGHER COSTS - Increased maintenance and natural gas costs, including extended Yazoo City outage, raised cost of sales

Company press release: ID:nBwb1hcZKa

Key Details

Metric	Beat/Miss	Actual	Consensus Estimate
Q1 Sales	Beat	$1.99 bln	$1.82 bln (9 Analysts)
Q1 EPS		$3.98
Q1 Net Income		$615 mln
Q1 Adjusted EBITDA		$983 mln

Analyst Coverage

• The current average analyst rating on the shares is "hold" and the breakdown of recommendations is 4 "strong buy" or "buy", 13 "hold" and 4 "sell" or "strong sell"

• The average consensus recommendation for the agricultural chemicals peer group is "buy."

• Wall Street's median 12-month price target for CF Industries Holdings Inc is $122.28, about 4.5% below its May 5 closing price of $128.04

• The stock recently traded at 11 times the next 12-month earnings vs. a P/E of 12 three months ago

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