Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) Q1 EPS Strength Challenges Bearish Margin Narratives
Cheesecake Factory Incorporated CAKE | 0.00 |
Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) has opened 2026 with Q1 revenue of US$978.8 million and basic EPS of US$1.06, setting a clear marker against a trailing twelve month EPS figure of US$3.55. The company has seen revenue move from US$927.2 million in Q1 2025 to US$978.8 million in Q1 2026, while quarterly EPS shifted from US$0.69 to US$1.06 over the same period, giving you a clear view of how sales and earnings are tracking into the new year. With net income and EPS aligned with a 4.3% net margin on the trailing numbers, the latest quarter highlights a picture in which profitability is steady and every move in margins matters.
See our full analysis for Cheesecake Factory.With the headline figures on the table, the next step is to compare these results with the key narratives around Cheesecake Factory to see which stories match the numbers and which ones start to look stretched.
US$3.8b trailing sales with 4.3% net margin
- On a trailing twelve month basis Cheesecake Factory generated about US$3.8b in revenue with net income of US$165.0 million, which works out to a 4.3% net margin that is essentially unchanged from the prior year.
- Consensus narrative points to stronger demand from experiences, menu refreshes, and digital loyalty, yet the flat 4.3% margin shows that, so far, cost pressures are still keeping a lid on profitability.
- Revenue over the last twelve months moved from US$3.6b to US$3.8b while net income moved from about US$156.8 million to US$165.0 million, so earnings grew roughly in line with sales rather than breaking out ahead of them.
- Analysts expect earnings to grow around 15.5% per year vs revenue at about 5.9% per year, so the current steady margin gives you a clear benchmark to judge whether future margin expansion actually shows up.
EPS of US$3.55 TTM vs bears’ margin worries
- Trailing twelve month EPS sits at US$3.55, supported by net income of US$165.0 million on US$3.8b of revenue, while single quarter EPS has ranged from about US$0.62 to US$1.18 over the last four reported quarters.
- Bears highlight pressure from labor, food costs, and complex dine in operations, and the recent EPS pattern gives a mixed picture for that concern.
- Q1 2026 EPS of about US$1.06 and Q2 2025 EPS of about US$1.18 are relatively high within the last year, while Q4 2025 EPS was around US$0.62, so earnings have been solid over the full year but not consistently at peak levels.
- With net profit margin sitting at 4.3% on the trailing numbers and not moving materially from last year, bears’ fear of sharp margin compression is not reflected in this data, but the lack of visible margin improvement also does not contradict their caution on cost pressure.
P/E of 18.4x and DCF value close to price
- The stock trades on a P/E of 18.4x, which sits below peers at 34.3x, below the broader industry at 20.8x, and below the US market at 19.1x, while a DCF fair value of about US$61.09 is very close to the current share price of US$61.13.
- Bulls argue that menu and brand strength can support faster earnings growth, and the current valuation leaves room for that view without requiring extreme assumptions.
- Earnings grew 5.4% over the past year and are forecast at about 15.5% per year, so if that acceleration plays out, today’s 18.4x multiple and price in line with DCF fair value would look consistent with the bullish case rather than stretched.
- At the same time, the main financial risk flagged is that debt is not well covered by operating cash flow, so any period where earnings do not track those growth expectations could make that balance sheet weakness more important than the current P/E discount.
Next Steps
To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Cheesecake Factory on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.
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See What Else Is Out There
Cheesecake Factory is running on a steady 4.3% net margin with uneven quarterly EPS and debt that is not well covered by operating cash flow.
If that mix of flat margins and balance sheet pressure makes you cautious, it is worth checking stocks in the solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (45 results) so you can compare ideas built on stronger financial footing.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
