Geopolitical tension around the Strait of Hormuz is putting oil supply risk and shipping costs back in the spotlight, and that can quickly reshape which stocks stand to benefit and which may come under pressure. When around 20% of global oil trade runs through a contested chokepoint, exposure to this news can matter as much as company fundamentals. This article looks at three stocks from the Geopolitical Energy Impact and Oil Price Sensitive Stocks screener: two that may be positioned to benefit from higher crude prices and one where rising fuel costs could be a headwind, to help you evaluate which risks and opportunities may warrant a closer look.

United Airlines Holdings (UAL)

Overview: United Airlines Holdings is a major U.S. airline group based in Chicago that flies passengers and cargo across the United States, Canada, the Atlantic, the Pacific, and Latin America, and also runs loyalty programs, ground handling, training, and maintenance services for itself and third parties.

Operations: United generates virtually all of its US$60.5b in revenue from airline transportation, with around US$35.8b from the United States and Canada and the balance from the Pacific, Atlantic, and Latin America routes.

Market Cap: US$40.9b

United Airlines Holdings is exposed to risks from developments around the Strait of Hormuz, as rising oil prices feed directly into jet fuel costs at a time when the stock already relies on debt funding and faces pressure from sustainability rules and premium travel competition. Management has been investing in higher yielding premium cabins and more efficient aircraft, and recent revenue and earnings data show the model can still generate profits. However, transcripts highlight fuel price volatility as a key concern and analysts are not expecting rapid expansion. For investors, the mix of modest expectations, a geared balance sheet and exposure to any prolonged fuel spike makes United a stock to treat with caution rather than comfort.

United Airlines Holdings already carries a geared balance sheet into a potential fuel price squeeze, and the real concern is what that mix means for resilience if conditions stay tough. It may be worth reviewing the 2 warning signs

Chevron (CVX)

Overview: Chevron is a global energy company that produces and transports crude oil and gas, refines them into fuels and chemicals, and is expanding into areas like carbon capture, hydrogen, and renewable fuels, with operations spanning North and South America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and Australia.

Operations: Chevron generates most of its revenue from its Upstream and Downstream businesses, including about US$47.3b from U.S. upstream, US$45.3b from international upstream, US$72.7b from U.S. downstream, and US$71.2b from international downstream operations, with smaller contributions from other activities and intersegment eliminations.

Market Cap: US$348.8b

Chevron sits near the center of the current Strait of Hormuz story because its large, low cost oil and gas portfolio is highly sensitive to crude prices at a time when tensions are pushing oil higher and supply routes look more fragile. The company already has production growth drivers from the Permian, Guyana and the Hess deal, while long term power and gas contracts, including data center power agreements with Microsoft, add cash flows that are less tied to daily oil headlines. The flip side is clear: Chevron still leans heavily on hydrocarbons, carries project and geopolitical risk across multiple regions, and trades on a richer P/E than many oil peers. Investors who want to understand how that trade off looks under prolonged Middle East tension may find Chevron worth a closer look.

Chevron’s oil exposure, data center power deals and richer P/E hint at a story markets may be pricing only half way. See how the 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs (1 is major!) could reshape your view of its Middle East sensitivity and upside potential

BP (LSE:BP.)

Overview: BP is a large integrated energy company headquartered in London that produces and trades oil and gas worldwide, while also running growing businesses in solar, wind, hydrogen, sustainable aviation fuel, bioenergy, EV charging and convenience retail.

Operations: BP generates the bulk of its revenue from the Customers & Products segment at about US$155.6b, followed by Gas & Low Carbon Energy at around US$39.0b and Oil Production & Operations at roughly US$24.0b, with a smaller contribution from Other Businesses and Corporate and a consolidation adjustment.

Market Cap: £74.6b

BP gives investors direct exposure to higher oil prices tied to the Strait of Hormuz tensions, while also running a sizeable Middle East production and trading operation that, according to recent calls, is working hard to keep refineries supplied and export routes flexible. At the same time, management is simplifying the portfolio through potential North Sea exits and Canadian asset sales, and refocusing on higher return upstream and trading activities that have been an important earnings pillar. The trade off is a rich P/E, a 5.15% dividend that is not fully covered by earnings, recent governance upheaval and legal scrutiny around AI fuel pricing. How all of this balances out under a prolonged period of elevated geopolitical risk is where the opportunity, and the real debate on BP, sits.

BP’s refocus on higher return upstream and trading could be masking a very different risk reward profile than its headline P/E and 5.15% dividend suggest, and the 4 key rewards and 3 important warning signs may reveal where that story really pivots

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.