Why Cleveland-Cliffs Stock Is Back in Focus After Q2 Results

Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) has drawn fresh attention after reporting second quarter and half year 2026 results, showing higher sales and a much smaller net loss compared with the same periods last year.

The latest earnings update appears to have shifted sentiment, with Cleveland-Cliffs' share price jumping 15.98% on the day and 15.01% over the past week. However, the year to date share price return is still down 19.41% and the 5 year total shareholder return is down 55.91%. This suggests recent momentum is improving from a weaker long term backdrop.

If you are reassessing Cleveland-Cliffs after these results, it can also be useful to see what else is moving in related areas, including 8 top copper producer stocks.

Cleveland-Cliffs now appears to be a business with improving sales and a smaller loss, yet the stock is still down sharply over five years. Is that recent rebound already pricing in the progress, or not?

Most Popular Narrative: 1% Overvalued

The most followed narrative currently pegs Cleveland-Cliffs' fair value at $10.86, which sits slightly below the last close at $10.96, framing a near inline assessment.

Analysts expect earnings to reach $784.5 million (and earnings per share of $0.73) by about July 2029, up from -$1.2 billion today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $1.1 billion in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $317.7 million.

That earnings path is built on a specific mix of revenue growth, margin repair, and a future earnings multiple that is not especially aggressive. Curious which assumptions really move that $10.86 fair value, and how much of the turnaround story is already baked in?

Result: Fair Value of $10.86 (OVERVALUED)

However, the Cleveland-Cliffs story can change quickly if Section 232 steel tariffs are eased, or if higher leverage limits how much balance sheet repair actually comes through.

Another View on Cleveland-Cliffs Valuation

While the most popular Cleveland-Cliffs narrative points to a fair value of $10.86 and labels the stock as slightly overvalued, the Simply Wall St DCF output tells a different story, with the shares trading about 27.5% below an estimated future cash flow value of $15.11. Which set of assumptions do you find more convincing?

Next Steps

With sentiment on Cleveland-Cliffs split between recent progress and longer term concerns, now is a good time to review the data yourself and move quickly to shape your own view by weighing up the 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs.

Looking for more investment ideas beyond Cleveland-Cliffs?

If Cleveland-Cliffs has you rethinking your portfolio, now is the moment to scan for other opportunities before they move out of reach.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.