Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) opened 2026 with Q1 revenue of US$4.9b and a basic EPS loss of US$0.42, with trailing twelve month revenue at US$18.9b against a net loss from continuing operations of US$1.2b. Over the past year of reported quarters, revenue has ranged between US$4.3b and US$4.9b while quarterly basic EPS has stayed in loss territory from US$0.50 to US$1.00 per share, keeping margins under clear pressure despite a relatively stable top line.

See our full analysis for Cleveland-Cliffs.

With the headline numbers set, the next step is to see how this mix of steady revenue and continued losses lines up against the major narratives around Cleveland-Cliffs, including expectations for a potential earnings turnaround.

Revenue Holds Near US$4.9b While Losses Persist

• Q1 2026 revenue came in at US$4.9b versus US$4.3b in Q4 2025, while net income from continuing operations stayed in loss territory at US$234 million for the quarter and US$1.2b over the last twelve months.
• Consensus narrative talks about cost cuts and asset sales supporting higher earnings over time, yet the trailing twelve month loss of US$1.2b and negative basic EPS of US$2.31 show that, so far, profit margins remain well below the industry profit margin assumption of 19.1% used in that view.
  • Analysts in that balanced view are working with an annual revenue growth assumption of about 4.8%, which is close to the 4.3% revenue growth figure cited in the analysis. However, the current revenue base of US$18.9b is not yet translating into positive earnings.
  • The consensus price target of US$10.78 is only modestly above the current share price of US$9.13. This suggests the market is still weighing the size of these losses against the potential for better margins later on.

Valuation Looks Cheap Against Ongoing Losses

• Cleveland Cliffs is trading on a P/S of about 0.3x compared with a peer average of 1.9x and a US Metals and Mining industry average of 2.7x, even though trailing twelve month net income excluding extra items shows a loss of US$1.2b.
• Bulls highlight tariffs, vertical integration and premium steels as reasons earnings could improve sharply. At the same time, the current 0.3x P/S and the forecast earnings growth rate of about 121% a year sit against a five year pattern where losses have widened at roughly 64.4% a year.
  • The bullish case leans on a revenue growth assumption of 7% a year and a move from a margin of about negative 7.9% to a positive 3.1%, while the latest trailing twelve month figures still show US$18.9b of revenue producing a loss of more than US$1.2b.
  • With the stock at US$9.13 versus the analyst target anchor of US$10.78, the gap is not huge. This may indicate that some of the bullish upside case is already reflected despite the company not yet achieving profitability.

On top of that, bullish investors who want to see how this optimistic case is built out in detail can go straight to the 🐂 Cleveland-Cliffs Bull Case.

Debt Coverage, Dilution and Insider Selling Keep Bears Focused

• Over the last twelve months, US$18.9b of revenue still resulted in a loss of US$1.2b and analysts flag that debt service is not well covered by operating cash flow, while shareholders also faced dilution and significant insider selling during the period.
• Bears argue that high leverage, reliance on older blast furnace assets and exposure to shifts in steel demand could keep pressure on margins. The current pattern of widening losses alongside fresh equity issuance and insider selling lines up with those worries.
  • The data points to weak coverage of debt by operating cash flow, which matters when a business is loss making, as it limits how quickly any future improvement in earnings can translate into balance sheet repair.
  • Recent dilution and insider selling mean existing holders now own a smaller slice of a company that has produced a US$1.2b loss over the last year. This strengthens the bearish view that financial risk needs close attention even with a low P/S multiple.

If you want to see how skeptics connect these balance sheet and governance concerns to future earnings scenarios, check out the 🐻 Cleveland-Cliffs Bear Case.

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Cleveland-Cliffs on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

Given the mix of concerns and optimism throughout this update, it may be useful to review the numbers yourself, consider both sides of the story, and then round out your research by checking 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs.

See What Else Is Out There

Cleveland-Cliffs is working with US$18.9b of revenue, continued losses of US$1.2b, weak debt coverage, dilution and insider selling, which all point to elevated risk.

If that mix of losses and balance sheet pressure makes you cautious, it is worth checking 72 resilient stocks with low risk scores today to compare with companies that score better on resilience.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.