Coinbase Global (COIN) has wrapped up FY 2025 with a wide range of quarterly outcomes, including Q4 revenue of US$1.7b and a basic EPS loss of US$2.49, alongside a trailing twelve month EPS of US$4.85 on revenue of US$6.9b. Over the last six reported quarters, revenue has moved between US$1.1b and US$2.2b while quarterly basic EPS has swung from a loss of US$2.49 to a profit of US$5.60, underlining how sensitive results have been to market conditions and trading activity. For investors, the key story now is how much of this earnings power is repeatable. Margins are sitting below last year and are influenced by a one off gain that makes the underlying profitability picture more complex.

See our full analysis for Coinbase Global.

With the headline numbers on the table, the next step is to set these results against the prevailing market and community narratives to see which views are supported by the data and which might need a rethink.

Margins Shift From 41% To 18.3%

• Over the last 12 months, net profit margin is 18.3% compared with 41% in the prior year, while trailing revenue sits at about US$6.9b and net income at about US$1.3b.
• Consensus narrative points to higher margin potential over time, yet the data highlight a very different picture right now.
  • Analysts expecting earnings to grow around 9.9% per year and revenue about 7.1% per year are working off a base where profitability has roughly halved on a margin basis.
  • The 18.3% margin also sits alongside a wide quarterly swing, from a net income loss of US$666.7 million in Q4 2025 to a profit of US$1.3b in Q2 2025, which can make any smooth margin story harder to rely on.

US$335.3m One Off Clouds EPS Picture

• Trailing 12 month EPS of US$4.85 and net income of about US$1.3b include a US$335.3 million one off gain, and Q4 2025 alone shows a net income loss of US$666.7 million despite US$1.7b in revenue.
• Critics highlight in the bearish narrative that earnings are hard to read because they are tied to trading cycles and one time events, and the current figures back up that concern.
  • A 40% drop in total trading volume mentioned in the bearish view sits alongside quarterly EPS that ranges from a loss of US$2.49 in Q4 2025 to a profit of US$5.60 in Q2 2025, which is a very wide band for a single fiscal year.
  • With the one off gain lifting trailing profit yet Q4 2025 showing a sizeable loss, it is difficult to treat the US$4.85 trailing EPS as a clean indicator of ongoing earning power, which aligns with bears focusing on earnings unpredictability.

On swings like this, skeptics argue that the story is less about one quarter and more about whether transaction heavy earnings can smooth out over time, especially when one off gains are involved. 🐻 Coinbase Global Bear Case

P/E Of 40.3x Versus DCF Value

• The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 40.3x compared with a peer average of 29.5x, slightly below the Capital Markets industry average of 42.8x, and well above a DCF fair value of about US$32.49 per share versus a current price of US$192.96.
• Bulls argue in the optimistic narrative that Coinbase could become an everything exchange with high margin subscriptions and onchain services, and the current multiples suggest the market is already pricing in a lot of that potential.
  • The bullish case leans on revenue growing 12.7% annually and margins reaching 31.1%, which would be a marked step up from the 18.3% trailing margin now reflected in the financials.
  • That view also implies earnings reaching US$3.1b, well above the current trailing net income of about US$1.3b, which helps explain why the P/E is above peers even though current growth forecasts of about 9.9% for earnings and 7.1% for revenue sit below the broader US market.

If you want to see how those bullish assumptions stack up against the latest numbers and forecasts in detail, check out the 🐂 Coinbase Global Bull Case

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Coinbase Global on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

With both risks and rewards in play, the story is clearly mixed. It therefore makes sense to move quickly and stress test the thesis against the data in your own way by checking the 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs.

See What Else Is Out There

Wide earnings swings, a sharp margin drop from 41% to 18.3%, and a sizeable one off gain all point to unpredictable profitability and valuation risk.

If this level of earnings and margin volatility makes you uneasy, it can be worth balancing your portfolio with 72 resilient stocks with low risk scores that focus on steadier fundamentals and lower risk profiles.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.