Regulators are turning up the heat on prediction markets, and that ripple effect is reaching far beyond a handful of fintech platforms. For investors in large, diversified financial stocks, this spotlight on compliance, trading practices, and partnerships with firms like Kalshi or Polymarket can reshape how risk is viewed and priced. Some companies may be better prepared for tighter rules and changing sentiment, while others could face tougher questions about growth and costs. This article breaks down how that backdrop affects three large cap diversified financials that appear positively exposed to the current regulatory focus, and what that might mean for your watchlist.

Coinbase Global (COIN)

Overview: Coinbase Global operates a crypto asset platform that acts as a primary financial account for retail users, a brokerage and liquidity hub for institutions, and a toolkit for developers building onchain applications in the US and internationally.

Operations: Coinbase Global generates about US$6.3b in revenue from data processing activities, with roughly US$5.5b from the United States and US$1.1b from international markets.

Market Cap: US$44.1b

Investors focused on large, regulated fintech platforms may find Coinbase Global interesting as regulatory pressure on prediction markets and smaller crypto platforms increases. The company has built its pitch around compliance, institutional partnerships and diversified products, from custody and derivatives to prediction markets that management says are tracking toward meaningful revenue. At the same time, earnings have been volatile, trading still drives a big share of results, and rising compliance and cybersecurity costs can weigh on profitability despite a 12.7% net margin and revenue from multiple US and international lines. With regulators scrutinizing less established platforms, the key consideration is how Coinbase Global’s scale, brand and policy efforts could reshape its risk profile and long term earnings mix.

Coinbase Global’s compliance pitch, institutional links and prediction markets push suggest the story is bigger than trading fees alone, but the real twist sits in the 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs

Moelis (MC)

Overview: Moelis is a global investment banking advisory firm that helps corporations, governments and financial sponsors structure and execute mergers and acquisitions, restructurings, capital raises and other complex corporate finance decisions across the Americas, EMEA and Asia-Pacific.

Operations: Moelis generates about US$1.53b in revenue entirely from investment banking advisory, with roughly US$1.29b from the United States and about US$238m from Europe and the rest of the world.

Market Cap: US$5.7b

Moelis stands out in this screener because it is a pure advisory firm with no trading book, no customer deposits and a business model built around institutional clients that rely on tight compliance and regulatory infrastructure. All of this matters more as regulators scrutinize prediction markets and fintech trading platforms. Expansion into private capital advisory and technology sectors, strong ROE metrics and a global cross border footprint are pulling in new, often repeat, mandates. Share buybacks and a sizeable dividend policy highlight management’s capital return focus. At the same time, high compensation costs, earnings swings tied to deal volumes and an uneven dividend record mean investors need to weigh quality and valuation against the risks of a fee based model that can turn quickly if capital markets slow.

Moelis’ fee engine, global cross border reach and capital returns story look tightly linked, yet the biggest tension between quality and earnings volatility sits inside the 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign

Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR)

Overview: Figure Technology Solutions runs a blockchain based marketplace that lets institutions and partners originate, finance and trade consumer credit and digital assets, including home loans, small business credit and yield bearing stablecoins, through a capital light, fee focused model.

Operations: Figure Technology Solutions generates about US$510.4m in revenue, all from the United States.

Market Cap: US$6.8b

Figure Technology Solutions sits at the intersection of tokenized credit, stablecoins and institutional funding at a time when regulators are turning up scrutiny on prediction markets and thinner capitalized fintechs. The company is pushing to bring traditional capital markets on chain through platforms like Democratized Prime, Figure Connect and its YLDS stablecoin, supported by partnerships with banks and institutional buyers. The planned Kiavi acquisition is set to add scale in real estate credit and broaden fee income. Earnings and revenue are forecast to grow faster than the wider US market, but the stock trades on a rich P/E and relies on external funding and relatively new leadership, so execution on acquisitions, cybersecurity and regulation sensitive products matters as much as the growth story investors are being drawn toward.

Figure Technology Solutions appears to be a fast-moving bridge between tokenized credit and institutional capital, but the real question is whether the current P/E and funding needs truly align with the analyst forecasts for Figure Technology Solutions

The three stocks covered here are only a starting point. The full Large-Cap Diversified Financials screener uncovers 16 more large cap diversified financial companies that pair scale and compliance focus with equally compelling narratives. Use Simply Wall St to identify, filter and analyze the specific catalysts, regulatory angles and business models that match your highest conviction ideas in this space.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.